Zero One Investment Research Weekly Intelligence Brief, Week ending November 7, 2026

Top Market Signals

Voters put 13GW of Texas data centers at risk... and Meta says building gets harder

Gina Hinojosa, Texas's governor-elect, campaigned on halting new data-center construction once she takes office, until the state writes rules for it. A foreign broker estimate carried by TechNews puts 13.1-13.3GW of Texas projects, about 26% of planned US capacity, at risk of delay.

The opposition is wider than one state. Meta (META US) president Dina Powell McCormick said building will be harder after the midterms, and an NBC and SSRS poll found about 76% of US voters oppose a new data center in their own community.

Microsoft's (MSFT US) decision not to double its rented capacity at Nscale's Texas site came months before the vote, Reuters' source said. Up to US$43.8bn of signed Nscale work stays in place.

This slows new sites more than it cuts chip demand. The broker report says demand for GPUs, memory and optical parts does not depend on location, but grid connections elsewhere take four years or more. Foxconn (2317 TT), Wistron (3231 TT), Wiwynn (6669 TT) and Delta (2308 TT) have all expanded in Texas, so the open question is whether any pause reaches projects already approved.

Linked stocks: MSFT US, META US, 2317 TT, 6669 TT

Key US tech earnings wrap... AMD guides 80% growth as Qualcomm's handset revenue falls 26%

AMD (AMD US) expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027, and CFO Jean Hu said data center will be more than 80% of revenue, against about 63% in 3Q26. CEO Lisa Su said AMD is planning for "a down year for 2027" in PCs, because higher component prices have slowed sales. Gaming revenue fell 40%.

Phones are paying for the memory. Qualcomm (QCOM US) handset revenue fell 26% YoY to US$5.14bn, and it no longer counts chip sales to Apple in its guide. Counterpoint estimates smartphone prices rose 27% in 3Q26 while shipments fell 19%. Arm's (ARM US) royalties rose only 8%, as weaker phones offset data center royalties that doubled.

Servers kept growing. Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guide about 12% at the midpoint, to US$72-82bn, though its gross margin was 12.7%.

Memory prices now split chip results in two. Companies selling into AI data centers raise their guides, while those selling into phones and PCs absorb the cost. Qualcomm guided its chip unit's margin to 20-22%, from 24% last quarter, as costs rise from foundry through memory.

Linked stocks: AMD US, QCOM US, ARM US, SMCI US

Winbond books 10 buyers for 2029-2032 output as Macronix sees shortages to 2030

Winbond (2344 TT) approved NT$73.2bn for Module B at its Kaohsiung fab and has picked 10 customers to lock in 2029-2032 capacity through long-term agreements, DigiTimes reported. Ground-breaking is set for 29 Dec, with full capacity in 2030. President Pei-Ming Chen said 2027 supply will be tighter than 2026.

Buyers are paying for supply in other ways too. Micron (MU US) will be the only buyer of up to US$500m of 10-year convertible bonds from GlobalWafers (6488 TT), the silicon wafer maker, at a 0.5% coupon. Korea's chip exports rose 259% YoY to US$56.4bn in October, which the trade ministry credited to rising DRAM and NAND contract prices.

The shortage has reached decade-old chips. Elite Semiconductor (3006 TT), a designer of older DRAM types, reported a 3Q26 gross margin of 77.4% as Taiwan peers cut DDR2 and DDR3. Macronix (2337 TT) chairman Miin Wu sees shortages possibly lasting to 2030. He still has no plan for a new fab, and warned that capacity added now would take the hit if AI demand falls away.

Linked stocks: 2344 TT, MU US, 6488 TT, 2337 TT

TSMC, Micron and Intel reportedly discuss 2029 tool orders as lead times pass two years

TSMC (2330 TT), Micron and Intel (INTC US) are discussing equipment orders for 2029, Korea's ET News reported via DigiTimes, because some tools now take more than two years to arrive. In August the same paper reported some lead times stretching from 3-4 months to 6-8 months.

ASML (ASML NA) CEO Christophe Fouquet said in October that adding 30% to capacity in 2027 and another 30% in 2028 would likely fall short of demand.

Toolmakers and their customers said the same thing all week. On 3 Nov Tokyo Electron (8035 JT) raised its full-year forecast, with operating profit expected to rise nearly 90%, and its CFO said chipmaker demand has not cooled. By 6 Nov the early ordering had reached board materials: Taiflex (8039 TT), a maker of circuit board laminates, has ordered equipment ahead of time for 100,000 sheets a month of PTFE laminate by early 2027.

TSMC may be ordering for a new site. Texas received a filing for two advanced fabs worth US$45bn, with volume production by end-2029, and the industry widely assumes it is TSMC, Economic Daily News reported. TSMC declined to comment.

Linked stocks: 2330 TT, MU US, ASML NA, AMAT US

Five US tech giants' unbooked AI commitments jump 90% to US$3.2tn in six months

Alphabet (GOOGL US), Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle (ORCL US) held US$3.2tn of AI commitments outside their balance sheets at the end of September, up 90% from March, TechNews reported citing a foreign media tally. These are future payments for chips, servers, power and leases that have not started, disclosed only in the notes to the accounts. Part of the figures are estimates.

Taiwan's suppliers are borrowing too. Asus (2357 TT) and Gigabyte (2376 TT) raised more than NT$100bn to buy parts ahead of NVIDIA's Vera Rubin ramp, and MediaTek (2454 TT) said it would consider financing a suitable customer.

Credit markets are starting to price the borrowers. S&P moved Meta's outlook to negative and expects it to rely entirely on debt to fill its 2028 cash gap. CoreWeave's (CRWV US) unsecured bond yields rose above 15%, while yields at peers IREN and Nebius did not follow. The pressure shows first at borrowers whose main asset is a contract with a larger company.

Linked stocks: GOOGL US, META US, CRWV US, 2357 TT

Marvell buys Lumentum at a US$115bn value as optics wafers reportedly sell at 7x

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) signed an all-stock deal for Lumentum (LITE US), the maker of the lasers inside AI data center links, at an implied enterprise value of US$115bn. Lumentum holders get 4.5 Marvell shares each, a 23.9% premium to the 28 Oct close before talks leaked. The deal is expected to close in 1H28, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.

Optics capacity was scarce all week. UMC (2303 TT) won silicon photonics wafer orders from Innolight (300308 CH), the largest maker of data center optical transceivers, with some reportedly priced at about seven times a standard wafer, because Tower Semiconductor and GlobalFoundries are fully booked. Airoha (6526 TT), a MediaTek group chip designer, expects its optical sales to multiply again in 2027.

Owning the lasers lets Marvell design custom chips and optics together from the start of a project, which puts it in more direct competition with Broadcom (AVGO US).

Linked stocks: MRVL US, LITE US, 2303 TT, 6526 TT

About 600,000 NVIDIA H200 chips wait in Hong Kong as Beijing slows imports

About 600,000 NVIDIA (NVDA US) H200 AI chips are sitting in Hong Kong because Beijing has not approved large-scale imports, Reuters reported. Washington already cleared the sales, so the hold-up now sits in Beijing. A server with eight H200s was quoted above RMB6m in China at the end of October, roughly three times a year earlier.

NVIDIA has also told cloud customers worldwide that at least 51% of their services must go to non-Chinese companies, the Financial Times reported. ByteDance, Alibaba (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) have instead ordered more than 3m lower-performance RTX Pro 5500 cards that meet US rules.

Linked stocks: NVDA US, 9988 HK, 700 HK