Zero One Investment Research Daily Intelligence Brief, November 4, 2026

AMD sees 80% growth, down PC year as NVIDIA caps clouds' China exposure

Top Market Signals

AMD sees 80% growth, down PC year

AMD (AMD US) expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027 while planning for a shrinking PC market, and memory costs drive that second half of the outlook. Part of that 2027 growth is underwritten by customer chip deals that cost AMD a US$1.1bn warrant remeasurement, which Reuters tied to OpenAI and Meta. CFO Jean Hu said data center will be more than 80% of company revenue in 2027, against about 63% in 3Q26.

3Q26 revenue rose 45% YoY to US$13.4bn and data center revenue rose 97% to a record US$8.5bn. AMD guided 4Q26 revenue to about US$17bn, plus or minus 3%, against the US$16.3bn analysts expected, and the 2027 growth target compares with about 77% expected, Liberty Times reported. AI chip revenue is due to pass server CPU revenue for the first time in 4Q26, according to cnYES's call summary.

The consumer business shows what the memory shortage costs. Gaming revenue fell 40% to US$773m. CEO Lisa Su said higher component prices have slowed sales to end buyers and that AMD is planning for "a down year for 2027" in PCs. Intel's (INTC US) PC-led guidance cut, in our 30 and 31 Oct Blades, pointed the same way.

Su said data center demand far exceeds supply and that AMD has coordinated wafers, substrates, advanced packaging and memory for 2027. Taiwan's packagers are preparing: ASE (3711 TT) targets advanced packaging and test revenue doubling to US$8bn in 2027. GAAP EPS was US$1.46 against US$2.09 non-GAAP, partly on that warrant remeasurement, and the 80% target still depends on supply arriving on schedule.

Linked stocks: AMD US, INTC US, 3711 TT

US officials stall SK hynix's New York fab

US Commerce Department officials have not approved the tool licenses SK hynix (000660 KS) wants for its NAND plant in Dalian, China, complicating a planned US$45bn NAND investment in Marcy, New York, Reuters reported citing people familiar with the talks. SK hynix's US unit Solidigm would build two fabs there, and the long-term total could reach about US$100bn.

SK hynix's case is that more output and more advanced NAND at Dalian would earn the revenue that helps pay for New York. Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler said at a meeting last week that the US does not want more US chip tools going to China for upgrades or added capacity, the sources said. Commerce has not formally rejected the application, and Solidigm executives have met its officials nearly 10 times since late August.

SK hynix argues that filling empty cleanrooms, built at Dalian in 2023, adds no capacity. A separate 2027 license to keep the plant running is also under negotiation, and a Treasury investment waiver would be needed too.

Our 16 Oct Blade reported SK hynix asking for more Dalian tools in return for a US NAND fab, and our 23 Oct Blade noted the dropped Solidigm listing. That leaves two funding routes for New York held up, and DigiTimes reported the market is looking at SK hynix's remaining Kioxia-related holdings instead. The 2027 Dalian license will show how far Commerce is willing to move.

Linked stocks: 000660 KS, 285A JT, MU US

NVIDIA caps China cloud work; Korean HBM leaks

NVIDIA (NVDA US) has told cloud customers worldwide that at least 51% of their services must go to non-Chinese companies, the Financial Times reported citing five people. Sales and regional teams delivered the rule orally, and it applies only to future contracts.

Chinese companies are the largest data center customers in Southeast Asia, and many rent overseas computing to train AI models. A Singapore operator said non-Chinese customers are hard to find outside the US. NVIDIA's customer whitelist has already cut approved Asian buyers by more than half, and a rack of its B300 chips that sells for about US$600,000 abroad changed hands in China last month for RMB18.5m, about US$2.8m. Chinese developers expect to receive about 1% of the US$70bn of RTX chips they ordered in the next several months, Bloomberg reported, as NVIDIA struggles to raise output.

Korean memory is taking the opposite route. Smugglers mount Samsung (005930 KS) and SK hynix high-bandwidth memory (HBM) beside low-end server processors, because US rules assess the package by its processor, then remove the memory in China and discard the rest, The Information reported. A broker in China said one HBM3E chip recently fetched US$4,000 against a few hundred dollars a year ago, and Huawei told some customers its next flagship AI chip, the Ascend 960DT, mainly uses Samsung and SK hynix HBM. Written US limits on overseas leasing would show whether NVIDIA's oral rule gets legal backing.

Linked stocks: NVDA US, 005930 KS, 000660 KS

Winbond lines up 2029 buyers before breaking ground

Winbond (2344 TT) approved NT$73.2bn to build Module B at its Kaohsiung fab, and DigiTimes reported it has picked 10 customers to lock in 2029-2032 capacity through long-term agreements. Ground-breaking is set for 29 Dec, small shipments for 2H29 and full capacity for 2030.

Module B is planned at 50,000-60,000 wafers a month, about twice Module A, which reaches 24,000 by year-end and will then run full. Total Module B spending could reach NT$300bn, DigiTimes reported.

Winbond's 3Q26 revenue rose 37.6% QoQ to NT$82.3bn and gross margin reached 70.6%, up 24 percentage points YoY. Blended US dollar prices for its customized memory rose nearly 60% in the quarter, and contract prices have room for another 10-20% rise in 4Q26. Silicon capacitor capacity, a newer line, is nearly sold out, with one customer taking 7,000-8,000 wafers at once.

Our 3 Nov Blade asked whether Winbond's pricing would support Team Group's call that the worst of the shortage runs to 2Q27. President Pei-Ming Chen said 2027 supply will be tighter than 2026 and that 2028 stays tight. He also said consumer customers have begun adjusting inventory, so 4Q26 growth should be slower than in earlier quarters.

Linked stocks: 2344 TT, 2408 TT, 4967 TT

Micron backs GlobalWafers with 0.5% 10-year convertible

GlobalWafers (6488 TT) will issue up to US$500m of 10-year convertible bonds at a 0.5% coupon with Micron (MU US) as the only buyer, putting terms on the funding the two announced in July. The issue needs a shareholder vote and sits alongside a 10-year supply agreement.

GlobalWafers said it chose a convertible because a prepayment ties directly to future product orders, while this money can also fund its wider US business, including the 12-inch wafer plant at Sherman, Texas. The bond adds no shares at issue. Texas shipments have set monthly records for four straight months.

Wafer prices have yet to follow memory prices. 12-inch capacity is full excluding new lines, and 8-inch and 6-inch are nearly full, yet Chairperson Doris Hsu said most 4Q26 orders still carry old prices. 3Q26 gross margin was 20%, against 70.6% at Winbond. She expects 1Q27 average prices above 4Q26, while some customers holding more wafer inventory are resisting increases.

Our 24 Oct Blade reported NVIDIA paying King Yuan Electronics a US$1.1bn prepayment for test capacity, and Nanya (2408 TT) says strategic partners are discussing equity stakes. Buyers are paying for supply through prepayments, convertibles and share purchases. 1Q27 wafer pricing will show how much of that tightness reaches GlobalWafers' margin.

Linked stocks: 6488 TT, MU US, 2408 TT

Phone revenue rose 3% as shipments fell 19%

Global smartphone revenue rose 3% YoY to US$114bn in 3Q26 even as shipments fell 19%, Counterpoint Research estimated, because average selling prices rose 27% to a record US$442. Memory costs and a richer mix of premium models pushed prices up.

Apple (AAPL US) took 50% of market revenue, with its phone revenue up 17%. Samsung's rose 14% to a 19% share. OPPO's fell 26% and vivo's 22%, because their shipments dropped faster than their prices rose. Counterpoint said higher prices do not mean profit improved at the same pace.

Our 3 Nov Blade reported phone chip shipments down 21% in the same quarter. Skyworks (SWKS US) expects its phone revenue to fall 10-15% QoQ in the current quarter on seasonality and weak high-end Android demand. Counterpoint expects shipment declines to outrun price increases in 4Q26, which would turn market revenue negative YoY.

Linked stocks: AAPL US, 005930 KS, SWKS US

Super Micro raises FY27 revenue guide about 12%

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guide to US$72-82bn from US$65-72bn, about 12% at the midpoint, against the US$69.2bn analysts expected. Fiscal 1Q revenue of US$19.95bn beat the US$16.4bn estimate and the US$18.5-19.5bn preliminary range in our 21 Oct Blade.

Gross margin was 12.7%, above the preliminary 12-12.5% and far below the 54% AMD reported on the same day. The fiscal 2Q guide of US$19.5-21.5bn implies more revenue than fiscal 1Q, yet its adjusted EPS midpoint of US$1.78 sits below fiscal 1Q's US$1.81.

New CFO Mark Long said the company selects customers carefully amid concern about debt-funded AI spending, and that the largest deployments are driving growth. DigiTimes reported cash turnaround time has shrunk to 74 days. Fiscal 2Q margin and cash conversion will show how much of the revenue growth reaches shareholders.

Linked stocks: SMCI US, NVDA US, AMD US

先聲 First Word: Exclusives from Chinese-Language Sources

TSMC signs 25-year power deal for 1.88GW in Arizona

TSMC (2330 TT) signed a 25-year direct-priced power contract with Pinnacle West for about 1.88GW, the full-build demand of its Arizona chip campus, pending regulatory review. TSMC will pay upfront and post credit support so the utility can build generation and grid capacity, which puts a number on the power needs behind its US fabs. (4 Nov 2026) Source: 台積電25年供電長約待送審 Pinnacle West規劃1.88GW供電

SPIL reportedly seeks 50 hectares for NT$100bn expansion

SPIL, the packaging unit of ASE Technology (3711 TT), has reportedly applied for nearly 50 hectares at the Erlin science park, land first planned for TSMC group affiliate Xintec, with spending estimated at up to NT$100bn. ASE declined to comment, and land allocation and the amount are unconfirmed, but it would take SPIL's Erlin total to as much as NT$200bn. (4 Nov 2026) Source: 矽品傳砸千億 中科二林擴產 日月光集團衝刺先進封裝

Airoha expects optical sales to multiply again in 2027

Airoha (6526 TT), a MediaTek group chip designer, said its optical business should repeat this year's multifold growth in 2027, with 100G-per-lane signal processing chips shipping since 3Q26 and rising in 1H27. It targets a 200G design finish by end-2027 and supplies several of the world's top 10 optical module makers, giving AI optics buyers a Taiwan source for these chips. (4 Nov 2026) Source: 達發光通訊業務 火爆