Zero One Investment Research Daily Intelligence Brief, October 15, 2026

ASML warns of a 2027-2028 capacity shortfall as Anthropic's quarter runs at OpenAI's scale

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ASML customers ask for 2029 and 2030 tools

ASML (ASML NA) reported record 3Q26 revenue of EUR11.66bn, up 55% YoY, and raised its full-year revenue guidance for the third time this year, to EUR44-45bn. CEO Christophe Fouquet said the capacity ASML has planned for 2027 and 2028 may not fully meet customer demand, and that some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030.

ASML had planned to raise capacity for its low-NA EUV tools (extreme ultraviolet lithography, the machines that print the finest chip features) by 30% in 2027 and by another 30% in 2028. Fouquet said that is clearly not enough, that ASML is receiving large orders for 2028, and that it is studying ways to lift 2028 capacity above the 30% step, Economic Daily News reported.

Net income was EUR4.96bn against the EUR4.13bn analysts expected, and gross margin reached 57.5%, Commercial Times reported. ASML guided 4Q26 revenue to EUR14.2-15.2bn, above analyst forecasts. It sold 17 EUV tools in the quarter, and service and upgrade revenue from existing customers grew 19%, as ASML also raises the output of tools already installed.

Taiwan was again ASML's largest region for new lithography shipments last quarter, Bloomberg analysts noted. Marketech (6196 TT) builds EUV subsystem modules for ASML, and Gudeng (3680 TT) makes the pods that carry and store EUV masks. TSMC (2330 TT) reports 3Q26 results today; its 2027 capex plan is the first customer-side read on those orders.

Linked stocks: ASML NA, 2330 TT, 6196 TT, 3680 TT

Anthropic's quarter runs at OpenAI's scale

Anthropic told prospective investors that its 3Q26 revenue reached US$16.8bn, Bloomberg reported on 14 Oct, as the AI model developer prepares to go public. Multiplied by four, the quarter equals about US$67bn of revenue a year.

Our 9 Oct 2026 Blade reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about US$50bn at the end of September, according to documents given to its backers and reported by the Financial Times, against roughly US$70bn in media reports a few weeks earlier. On those two figures, Anthropic's latest quarter is running at a higher annual pace than OpenAI. The measures differ: Anthropic's is a full quarter multiplied by four, OpenAI's a run-rate at a point in time.

Anthropic held an investor day on 14 Oct as it advances plans for an IPO at a valuation of about US$2tn, Bloomberg reported. On the OpenAI side, SoftBank (9984 JT), which has committed US$64.6bn to OpenAI, sold a 2034 bond with a 9.75% coupon last month, its highest ever, against 5.2% on an Alphabet bond due 2033, Reuters reported. A SoftBank executive said it borrowed so it would not have to sell assets it expects to keep rising in value.

Linked stocks: GOOGL US, AVGO US, 9984 JT

SK hynix delays some AI memory tool orders to 2027

SK hynix (000660 KS) has pushed part of the back-end equipment orders for HBM4 (sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory, stacked beside AI processors) that it planned for 2H26 into 2027, and its 2027 investment plan is not yet settled, DigiTimes reported. Some in the industry worry that its HBM4 capacity will now grow more slowly than expected.

DigiTimes Asia tied the delay to rising prices for conventional DRAM, which give SK hynix competing uses for its capital. The profit gap behind that choice is large: our 13 Oct 2026 Blade reported that Nanya Technology's (2408 TT) DRAM selling price rose more than 60% QoQ in 3Q26 and its gross margin reached a record 85.7%.

The report is unconfirmed by SK hynix. Its 2027 investment plan is what would show whether HBM4 capacity growth slows, or whether the equipment is simply arriving a few months later.

Linked stocks: 000660 KS, 005930 KS, MU US, NVDA US

Applied Materials names cleanroom space as the limit

Applied Materials (AMAT US) said at its investor meeting that despite strong AI demand, chip equipment sales are held back by how fast fabs get built, and that cleanroom space is the main limit, DigiTimes reported. CFO Brice Hill said Applied tracks more than 100 fab projects worldwide when it forecasts equipment demand.

The shares fell 6.7% on 13 Oct, after a drop of nearly 9% during the session, because Applied gave no specific market growth forecast, Economic Daily News reported. CEO Gary Dickerson said the industry is changing too fast, and that fab space, the supply chain and energy financing could all affect the pace of growth.

Applied expects wafer fab equipment spending to grow faster through around 2030 than it did in 2010-2020, and targets a share gain of more than 2 points from its 2025 base, with an adjusted gross margin of about 54% and an operating margin of about 40% in 2030. It expects service revenue to grow more than 20% this year and pass US$12bn by 2030, and is aiming for advanced packaging revenue of US$5bn in the coming years.

Applied's US$5bn EPIC research center in California counts Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, TSMC (2330 TT), Intel and Micron as founding partners, CNA reported. Read with ASML's results, the two largest toolmakers are both describing a supply-side limit on how fast AI demand turns into installed tools.

Linked stocks: AMAT US, ASML NA, LRCX US, 2330 TT

Japan funds two GlobalFoundries fabs in New York

GlobalFoundries (GFS US) will be technology provider and operator for two new fabs at its Malta, New York site, funded by Japan under a US-Japan initiative of up to US$21bn, the company said on 14 Oct. Japan supplies the capital and GlobalFoundries its process technology and operations; the first 300mm fab is due to start up in 2029, with about US$10bn for each fab.

Earlier reports from Nikkei said the money would come from Japan's US$550bn investment commitment under its trade deal with the US, with JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation) expected to play a central role.

Our 9 Oct 2026 Blade covered GlobalFoundries' five-year, US$2bn deal to make silicon interposers for TSMC's (2330 TT) CoWoS packaging at the same Malta site, ramping in 1H28. The process technology of the two new fabs has not been disclosed; that will decide whether they compete with Taiwan's mature-node and specialty foundries such as UMC (2303 TT).

Linked stocks: GFS US, 2330 TT, 2303 TT

先聲 First Word: Exclusives from Chinese-Language Sources

UMC turns down a Samsung rush order for foldable phone chips

Samsung Electronics asked UMC (2303 TT) for a rush order of display driver chips for the Galaxy Z Fold8, whose demand came in above plan, and UMC did not accept it; Samsung cut its component production plan by 10% in September and is evaluating GlobalFoundries as a second foundry for these chips, DigiTimes reported. Mature-process capacity is now short enough that a Taiwan foundry is declining rush work from Samsung. (14 Oct 2026)

Source: 聯電傳婉拒Galaxy Z Fold8急單　三星DDI代工擬增GF為第二供應商

Flexium and Taiflex join NVIDIA's first PTFE switch board

NVIDIA showed its first switch board sample made with PTFE (a low-loss material used in high-frequency circuit boards) at the OCP Global Summit and named seven supply partners; Flexium Interconnect (6269 TT) and Taiflex (8039 TT) are the two Taiwan names, and the rest are Chinese makers. The board sits in NVIDIA's NVLink switching, which gives Taiwan's flexible-board makers a new AI server product. (14 Oct 2026)

Source: NVIDIA OCP首秀PTFE交換器板　台郡、台虹入列合作夥伴名單

ASE has bought plants eight times this year for NT$48.2bn

ASE Technology (3711 TT) has bought factory property eight times this year for a total of NT$48.2bn, and Largan Precision (3008 TT) seven times for NT$8.1bn, as Taiwan's commercial property deals passed NT$100bn in 3Q26, cnYES reported. Buying existing buildings is how Taiwan's packaging and test makers are adding AI capacity; Sigurd's NT$2.19bn Hsinchu plant purchase ran in our 14 Oct Blade. (14 Oct 2026)

Source: 〈房產〉AI擴產動能強 台中烏日8883坪工業用地趁勢公開標售