Zero One Investment Research Daily Intelligence Brief, October 20, 2026

Anthropic takes the West Virginia site Microsoft left as old-node chip prices climb

Top Market Signals

Anthropic lines up a second US$45bn deal at an Nscale campus Microsoft left

Anthropic is in talks with Nscale, the NVIDIA-backed (NVDA US) data center developer, on a second compute contract worth up to US$45bn, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. The capacity would come from a second building at Nscale's Monarch campus in West Virginia, running NVIDIA's Vera Rubin chips at 460MW, and a deal could close within days.

Microsoft (MSFT US) had signed a letter of intent for part of Monarch in March, then left the project this summer, which let Anthropic take the space. Anthropic also holds first right to lease a planned third building, and Nscale's IPO filing says the campus can grow past 8GW.

The read is that capacity one hyperscaler walks away from is being re-let to a model developer within months. That matters for Nscale, whose investors had pushed back on its US$30bn IPO valuation, and it adds to Anthropic's contracts with Fluidstack (US$50bn), SpaceX (US$45bn) and Volta (US$10bn). The test is whether the deal is signed at the full size; sources said terms could still change.

Linked stocks: NVDA US, MSFT US, CRWV US

Older chip node foundry prices set to rise up to 8% in 1Q27

Utilization at foundries making chips on mature nodes (older, larger process technologies such as 28nm to 90nm) reached 91% this quarter, and 8-inch and 12-inch mature node prices should rise 4% to 8% QoQ in 1Q27, research firm Sigmaintell said, as reported by Economic Daily News.

The demand is coming from AI servers, not phones or laptops, which Sigmaintell describes as still weak. AI infrastructure is pulling NOR flash memory, microcontrollers and power management chips, leaving 55nm and 90nm capacity tight. 90nm prices rose 4% this quarter and should rise another 8% in 1Q27; 28nm and 40nm are expected to rise 6% and 5%. On 8-inch wafers, 48-volt power chips for AI servers give foundries about six months of order visibility, while global 8-inch capacity shrinks 6% this year and 2% next year.

The Taiwan names are already showing it. UMC (2303 TT) said 3Q26 utilization rose above 90% with gross margin around 35%. Vanguard International (5347 TT) has about four months of order visibility. Powerchip (6770 TT) raised DRAM wafer prices about 45% and logic wafer prices 10% to 15% in July. The read changes if consumer electronics demand weakens further and second-tier foundries keep cutting prices on 55nm and 90nm.

Linked stocks: 2303 TT, 5347 TT, 6770 TT, GFS US

TSMC's second Kumamoto fab switches to 3nm

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry approved a change in plan for the second fab of JASM, TSMC's (2330 TT) Kumamoto subsidiary, so that it will make 3nm logic chips, with production targeted for the end of 2028. JASM said its equipment investment will exceed US$23bn under the revised plan.

The second Kumamoto fab was originally planned for older nodes. Moving it to 3nm puts TSMC's most heavily used advanced node in Japan, after Chairman C.C. Wei said on 15 Oct that TSMC would add another 3nm fab in Tainan that it would normally skip.

The open question is cost: a 3nm fab in Japan will carry higher operating costs than Tainan, and Japan's subsidy approval sets the terms on which that gap is covered.

Linked stocks: 2330 TT, TSM US

Apple and Tesla test Chinese memory, but it is not cheaper

Apple (AAPL US) and Tesla (TSLA US) are citing CXMT, China's largest DRAM maker, as a possible source to push Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK hynix (000660 KS) to cut prices, Chosun Ilbo reported. The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is testing CXMT DRAM, and Elon Musk said only Micron (MU US) prices fairly.

The leverage is thin. CXMT runs three 12-inch fabs at about 300,000 wafers a month, and SemiAnalysis expects its share of global DRAM wafer capacity to rise from 13% in 2025 to about 17% by end 2027. But its revenue share was only about 7% to 7.6% in 1H26, because it cannot buy EUV tools and must use multiple DUV exposures. Market estimates put its DRAM prices close to the three leaders, and it sits on the US Defense Department's list of Chinese military companies.

So a buyer's threat to switch does not lower the price today. The condition that would change this is CXMT shipping in volume at a real discount, which its capacity alone does not deliver.

Linked stocks: 005930 KS, 000660 KS, MU US, AAPL US

Amazon lets PyTorch apps move to its own AI chip with one line

Amazon Web Services (AMZN US) released TorchNeuron, a tool that lets AI apps written in PyTorch run on its Trainium chip by changing one line of configuration, without rewriting code. Amazon says about 85% of AI apps are written in PyTorch, the open source toolkit where NVIDIA's (NVDA US) CUDA software has long been the default.

AWS pitched the tool at AI startups that now rent NVIDIA capacity from neoclouds such as CoreWeave (CRWV US). Its case is cost per workload, not the lowest price per token: Trainium handles both training and inference, and AWS said voice AI company Deepgram processes 70% more audio per dollar after moving.

The signal to watch is how many startups make the switch, since AMD and Apple chips already offer similar one-line PyTorch ports.

Linked stocks: AMZN US, NVDA US, CRWV US, AMD US

Intel asks for a waiver to keep its fab robots running

Intel (INTC US) asked the US Federal Communications Commission to exempt the automated guided vehicles that move materials inside its chip plants from a ban on foreign-made advanced robots. The FCC added such robots to its covered list in July; the ban does not touch equipment already in use, but it limits hardware, software and firmware updates.

Intel said there is no proven US-made replacement that meets its requirements, swapping the machines would take years, and any stoppage would "immediately" hit its US chip output. Japan's Murata Machinery and Daifuku (6383 JT) are the main suppliers.

TSMC (2330 TT), Micron (MU US), GlobalFoundries, Samsung and Texas Instruments also run US fabs and may need the same exemption, though none has been reported as filing. The outcome to watch is whether the FCC grants a class exemption for chip plants or makes each company apply.

Linked stocks: INTC US, 2330 TT, MU US, 6383 JT

先聲 First Word: Exclusives from Chinese-Language Sources

Amtran's optical line passes customer certification

Amtran Technology (2489 TT), a former TV maker, said for the first time that its optical communications line has passed customer certification, and it will expand capacity and hire in Vietnam. The line is understood to make fiber shuffle boxes, which split and route optical signals in AI data centers, priced at US$6,000 to US$8,000 each and certified by NVIDIA and US cloud companies. September revenue of NT$3.45bn was a seven-year monthly high, up 32.5% YoY. Chairman Wu Chun-fa said shortages of memory and capacitors now limit how much it can ship. (20 Oct 2026)

Source: 輝達等大咖都愛！瑞軒光通訊產線獲認證 董座吳春發首度證實

TPK to spend NT$6bn on glass chip substrates

TPK Holding (3673 TT), a touch panel maker, plans to invest NT$6bn over two years to build capacity for glass substrates with through-glass vias, a packaging base for AI chips. A pilot line at Zhongli is complete, it is co-developing samples with packaging companies, and it targets technology validation by end 2027 and mass production in 2028. TPK said simulations show signal loss more than 50% lower than organic substrates at very high frequencies. (20 Oct 2026)

Source: TPK 進擊攻玻璃基板 秀 TGV 相關技術 預計未來兩年投入60億元擴產

BizLink and Rosenberger build copper links next to the chip

BizLink (3665 TT), a cable assembly maker, is working with German connector maker Rosenberger on a co-packaged copper system using miniature connectors and 39 AWG wire placed near the chip, while also developing 448G copper cables and optical links for near-packaged and co-packaged optics. It also supplies fiber shuffle boxes and rack fiber systems for those designs. (20 Oct 2026)

Source: 貿聯-KY攜手德廠強攻448G互連 同步布局NPO、CPO