Zero One Investment Research Daily Intelligence Brief, September 14, 2026

TSMC expands the node 2nm replaced as China's DRAM leader clears an 80% margin

Top Market Signals

TSMC adds more 3nm capacity than 2nm

TSMC (2330 TT) has given its supply chain the first look at next year's expansion plan for its two most advanced nodes, and the bigger build is at 3nm rather than at 2nm.

According to Economic Daily News reporting, 2nm monthly capacity reaches 90,000 wafers by the end of 2026 and 110,000 by the middle of 2027, a rise of 22%. 3nm goes from more than 180,000 wafers a month at the end of 2026 to more than 210,000 by mid-2027, up over 16%. In wafers rather than percentages, 3nm adds about 30,000 a month over that half year against about 20,000 for 2nm.

That matters because 3nm is no longer TSMC's leading process. The same reporting traces 3nm from 120,000 to 130,000 wafers a month at the end of 2025, to 180,000 a year later, to more than 210,000 by mid-2027, close to 70% more capacity across 18 months. Demand for the node did not fall away when 2nm entered volume production.

TSMC has guided 2026 capital spending to US$60-64bn, with 70% to 80% of that going to advanced processes. It is building three new 3nm fabs, in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan, and is converting 5nm equipment in Taiwan to support 3nm output. The company declined to comment on the reports on 13 Sep, saying its own announcements govern capacity disclosures.

Linked stocks: 2330 TT, 1560 TT, ASML NA

Corning steers Taiwan's panel makers toward TSMC packaging

Corning (GLW US) is leading Innolux (3481 TT), AUO (2409 TT) and G-Tech Optoelectronics (3149 TT) into panel-level packaging, and Innolux and AUO are now described as leading candidates to partner TSMC (2330 TT) on it.

The route in is the one asset a struggling LCD maker still has, which is large-area glass processing. Innolux says it has more than 20 years of photolithography, etching and precision machining experience on large glass substrates, and has converted existing LCD lines into a fan-out panel-level packaging base. It runs 620x670mm panels, the largest size in the industry, and chairman Hung Chin-yang says the platform supports multi-layer redistribution and is now going through customer qualification. AUO is building 510x515mm glass core substrates with Corning's semiconductor-grade glass and its own redistribution process.

The same partnership is pushing into optical interconnect. Innolux has joined the silicon photonics alliance founded by TSMC and ASE (3711 TT), and its glass optical waveguide work with Corning is reported to have made it a manufacturing partner for NVIDIA and Google on optical components, with the pair claiming the shorter electrical-to-optical conversion path cuts system power by up to 50%. AUO has sampled a system-level Micro LED optical module to the AI supply chain.

Our 08 Sep 2026 Blade flagged that Samsung Electro-Mechanics may delay glass substrate mass production after its through-glass-via module ran behind schedule in TSMC's reliability evaluation. Six days later the glass work at TSMC is being picked up from Taiwan instead, by companies whose equipment was bought to make televisions.

Linked stocks: 3481 TT, 2409 TT, 2330 TT, GLW US

China's DRAM leader clears an 80% operating margin

CXMT, China's largest DRAM maker, reached an operating margin of about 82% on an earnings before interest and tax basis in 2Q26, which DigiTimes places ahead of the three largest memory makers.

DigiTimes attributes the result to the rise in general-purpose memory prices rather than to anything AI-specific that CXMT itself sells. Our 12 Sep 2026 Blade traced that price rise to high-bandwidth memory production taking DRAM wafer capacity away from standard parts.

The read for the rest of the memory complex is that the commodity end of the market currently carries the better margin. It also gives a reference point for how much pricing headroom standard DRAM has before demand destruction shows up.

Linked stocks: 000660 KS, 005930 KS, MU US, 2408 TT

Samsung and SK Hynix refuse a power prepayment

Korea Electric Power Corporation (015760 KS) asked Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS) to pay about KRW25tn of electricity charges five years in advance, and both companies turned it down, according to a Chosun Ilbo exclusive.

A utility asking its two largest industrial customers to pay half a decade ahead of consumption is asking them to finance its own buildout. The grid operator has to spend on transmission and generation before the demand that justifies it arrives, and asking the customers to bridge that gap is a different proposition from raising the money itself.

Our 09 Sep 2026 Blade carried Korea's climate, energy and environment minister Kim Sung-hwan saying AI-related demand alone will add 25GW to 30GW to national electricity demand, driven by Samsung and SK Hynix capacity expansion and new data centers. Today's prepayment request is KEPCO trying to fund the buildout behind that demand. The refusal leaves the funding question open rather than settling it, and power availability stays on the list of things that could pace Korean memory capacity additions.

Linked stocks: 005930 KS, 000660 KS, 015760 KS

Samsung stops discounting and Qualcomm's 2nm order slips

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has spent years trying to win back Qualcomm (QCOM US) flagship application processor orders, and the talks have stretched out again, with the 2nm business now reported to slip into 2027.

What changed is the reason. DigiTimes reports the obstacle this time is not 2nm process performance or yield but a disagreement over foundry pricing, which is a different problem from the one Samsung foundry has spent years trying to solve. Winning volume by undercutting TSMC was the tool that was always available, and declining to use it is a choice about margin over utilization.

The timing is awkward. SMIC (981 HK) has closed the foundry revenue share gap to Samsung to 0.5 percentage points, after 2Q26 revenue grew 20% QoQ and lifted its share to 5.4% in third place, against 1.8% QoQ growth at Samsung foundry, whose share fell from 6.5%. Holding price while a competitor grows into your position is defensible on margin and expensive on scale.

Linked stocks: 005930 KS, QCOM US, 2330 TT, 981 HK

Zhen Ding's optical module revenue at least doubles

Zhen Ding Technology (4958 TT), Taiwan's largest printed circuit board maker, is guiding optical module revenue to about NT$10bn this year and NT$20-30bn in 2027 as new capacity comes online.

The mix inside that line is shifting quickly. The company expects 1.6T shipments to pass 800G products next year and to become mainstream in 2028, with the process moving to modified semi-additive plating, already used on more than half of 800G output and on essentially all 1.6T work. Gross margin on optical modules is above 40%, against 30% to 40% across servers, optical modules and IC substrates together, and roughly 50% on some high-end substrates.

Order visibility now runs past the capacity that exists. Zhen Ding says customers have booked AI server board capacity through 2028, with iHDI and high-layer-count products for both GPU and custom chip customers in volume production. Capital spending exceeds NT$80bn this year and is planned at a similar level in 2027, with 13 new plants under construction and 16 more in planning. August revenue was NT$20.67bn, up 41.05% YoY.

Linked stocks: 4958 TT, 2317 TT, NVDA US

Apple raises last generation's iPhone prices

Apple (AAPL US) has raised prices on the previous generation of iPhone and discontinued the iPhone 17 Pro, which Taiwanese industry analysis reads as an attempt to close the gap between old and new models rather than as a pricing decision about the new range.

The mechanism is worth separating from the marketing. Component costs have risen across the shortage in memory and other parts. Apple has responded by raising the previous generation's prices instead of absorbing the cost or pricing the new iPhone 18 line above what the market would take. A buyer who was going to trade down to last year's Pro now has less reason to.

Taiwanese suppliers benefit whichever way the upgrade cycle resolves, with TSMC (2330 TT) on the processor, Largan Precision (3008 TT) on optics and Hon Hai (2317 TT) on assembly. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max carry an A20 Pro processor that Economic Daily News reports as more than 20% faster than the prior generation with better thermal handling, alongside a variable aperture camera and full support for Apple's new Siri features.

Linked stocks: AAPL US, 2330 TT, 3008 TT, 2317 TT

先聲 First Word: Exclusives from Chinese-Language Sources

Foxconn and Gigabyte clear Taiwan's first state AI compute tender

Three operators applied in the first wave of the Ministry of Digital Affairs tender for privately planned AI compute centers on a build-own-operate basis, and Hon Hai and Gigabyte have passed qualification review and completed public hearings, with contracts expected before the end of 2026. Taiwan is routing sovereign AI capacity through its hardware makers rather than through a state operator, and the ministry has used a legal interpretation to clear the power constraint. (14 Sep 2026) Source: AI算力中心首波BOO申請超預期 政府函釋法令為電力解套

STMicroelectronics microcontroller lead times pass one year

Lead times on STMicroelectronics microcontrollers are reported to exceed one year, leaving industrial microcontrollers in severe shortage as AI demand continues to crowd out mature-node capacity, and the supply chain expects the tightness to persist into 2027. Taiwanese suppliers pushing into high-end industrial microcontrollers stand to pick up transferred orders if they can hold stable supply, which is the test that usually decides whether a shortage converts into lasting share. (14 Sep 2026) Source: 意法MCU交期傳長達逾1年 台廠迎轉單商機、拚穩定供貨

Taiwan's own satellites will miss its 2027 resilience deadline

The two Beyond 5G low-orbit satellites commissioned by the National Science and Technology Council through the national space agency, and the four low-orbit communications satellites Wistron and Compal won with a NT$1.178bn bid, will not arrive in time to meet the government's 2027 communications resilience requirement, which is why the direction of cooperation with Amazon Leo has now been settled. Sovereign communications backup is being bought rather than built, after Elon Musk's remarks on Taiwan raised the cost of depending on Starlink. (14 Sep 2026) Source: 政府與Amazon Leo合作方向確立 布建新一代衛星專網