Zero One Investment Research Daily Intelligence Brief, October 5, 2026

Musk confirms Terafab talks with TSMC as price increases reach wafers and power chips

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Musk confirms Terafab talks with TSMC

Elon Musk confirmed on 3 Oct that Terafab, the chipmaking venture backed by SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA US), is talking to TSMC (2330 TT). "Just discussions, but something may come of it," Musk wrote on X, after Tim Culpan's Culpium reported that TSMC could build and operate a fab that makes custom chips only for Tesla, SpaceX and xAI. TSMC has not commented.

Culpan sees two likely structures. In the first, TSMC funds, owns and runs the fab while SpaceX or Terafab invests and commits to buy a guaranteed volume of chips, similar to TSMC's JASM venture with Sony in Japan and ESMC with Bosch and Infineon in Germany. In the second, SpaceX holds the majority and TSMC a minority stake while still supplying process technology and running operations, which would be a first for TSMC.

The talks put Intel's (INTC US) role in doubt. Intel was expected to supply its 14A process to Terafab; if TSMC brings its own process, 14A could be dropped. Another option reported by Liberty Times and Tom's Hardware is a split, with Intel 14A making the chips in Texas and TSMC packaging them there. Terafab also lacks the cross-licensing deal Intel holds with TSMC, so making chips on Intel's process alone could expose it to TSMC patent claims.

Our 29 Sep 2026 Blade reported that TSMC was weighing a second US campus of six advanced fabs, with Dallas the leading candidate, which the board had not approved. Culpan writes that TSMC's rumored Texas plan may be meant to support Terafab, which would give that campus a named anchor customer. The plan becomes firm only if TSMC's board approves a Texas investment or the companies sign an agreement.

Linked stocks: 2330 TT, INTC US, TSLA US

Robots top 95% on GB300 busbar assembly

NVIDIA (NVDA US) and Foxconn (2317 TT), a GB300 contract manufacturer, have robots assembling GB300 test trays (the units that check compute modules before shipment) with a busbar success rate above 95%, against a factory target of 99.5%. NVIDIA's Seattle Robotics Lab published the results on 2 Oct, with performance targets set together with Foxconn.

The busbar task means placing a long, heavy metal power bar in the tray and driving 16 screws. Robots now meet the cycle time on every step except the screws, so the full job takes about 160 seconds against a 124 second target, twice a skilled worker's time. The second task, plugging two large and two small cable connectors into tight sockets, succeeds 90% to 95% of the time against a 72 second target. Fixed automation does not work here because GB300 designs change quickly and volumes are low.

Separately, Oracle (ORCL US) cloud infrastructure head Mahesh Thiagarajan recently visited Foxconn's Texas plant as NVIDIA Vera Rubin racks for Oracle moved toward volume production. Foxconn's 2026 capex is expected to rise more than 30%, with expansion in Texas, Wisconsin, Ohio and California. Industry sources told Commercial Times that robot assembly would reduce reliance on skilled labor and make it easier to add AI hardware output in the US.

Linked stocks: 2317 TT, NVDA US, ORCL US

Silicon wafer makers line up 2027 price increases

GlobalWafers (6488 TT) is moving toward higher prices on its 2027 long-term contracts, with analysts estimating increases of 15% to 25% for 12 inch epitaxial wafers and 40% or more for polished wafers, Liberty Times reported. Analysts also expect 4Q26 spot prices for 12 inch wafers to move above contract prices. Silicon wafers are the raw discs every chip is built on, so the increase reaches every chipmaker.

The tightness started at the leading edge and has spread down. AI demand for advanced logic, advanced packaging and HBM (high-bandwidth memory) pulled on 12 inch supply first; Wafer Works (6182 TT) has run its 6, 8 and 12 inch lines near full since 2Q26 and already raised 6 and 8 inch prices about 10% in 1H26, and analysts expect it to raise 12 inch prices in 1Q27. Analysts say TSMC's resistance to price increases is holding the epitaxial figure below the polished one.

GlobalWafers chair Doris Hsu expects industry output value to grow by double digits for the next two years, with shipments and prices both rising, and said advanced packaging has started contributing revenue this year. The 4Q26 spot price is the first check: a move above contract prices would support the 2027 contract estimates.

Linked stocks: 6488 TT, 3532 TT, 6182 TT, 3436 JT

Power chip makers raise prices up to 15%

Texas Instruments (TXN US), Renesas and onsemi (ON US) are raising power semiconductor prices by up to 15%, and Taiwan's Pan Jit (2481 TT) and Taiwan Semiconductor (5425 TT) are following this month, Economic Daily News reported. Onsemi starts using new quotes on 10 Oct, Renesas' second round reportedly takes effect on 1 Jan 2027, and China's China Resources Microelectronics and Silan raised prices by 15% or more from 1 Jul.

Power chips (MOSFETs, IGBTs and rectifiers that switch and convert electricity) are in short supply because AI racks need more of them. NVIDIA's 800V direct-current design steps power down from high voltage to about 48V to 54V at the rack, then to about 1V for the GPU, and every step uses power chips. Some foundries have moved 8 inch capacity to other products, so lead times on some parts are getting longer.

The increases are moving into IC design too. Power management, display driver and microcontroller chip designers are preparing a second round of 5% to double-digit increases for late this year or early next, after TSMC's mature-node prices rise about 3% to 10% from January, Economic Daily News reported, and one foundry has said its prices will rise 20% or more next year. One microcontroller maker said its large long-term customers have already accepted higher 2027 prices.

Linked stocks: TXN US, ON US, 2481 TT, 5425 TT

First RTX Spark PC batches sell out before launch

ASUS (2357 TT) has had its entire first allocation of NVIDIA (NVDA US) RTX Spark laptops booked by channel customers ahead of an expected 8 Oct launch and is asking NVIDIA for more supply, co-CEO Samson Hu said, according to Economic Daily News. MSI (2377 TT) said its first batch of N1X laptops is nearly sold out. RTX Spark is NVIDIA's first Windows PC chip, combining a 20-core Grace CPU with a Blackwell GPU.

The ASUS ProArt P16 supports 128GB of unified memory, and MSI's EdgeMesa mini PC takes up to 128GB of LPDDR5X (the low-power memory also used in phones and AI servers). Acer (2353 TT) plans an RTX Spark small desktop in October, and analysts expect Gigabyte (2376 TT) models in 1Q27.

The sell-outs come while memory costs are lifting PC prices. Phison said on 30 Sep that some PC makers expect 2027 shipments to fall 25%, as our 1 Oct Blade reported. First-batch sizes were not disclosed, so repeat orders after launch will show whether demand for a 128GB AI PC reaches beyond creators and developers.

Linked stocks: NVDA US, 2357 TT, 2377 TT, 2353 TT

China holds 343 ASML lithography tools, report says

Chinese chipmakers had built up about 343 ASML (ASML NA) deep-ultraviolet lithography tools by early 2026, according to a 26 Sep report from the Washington-based Center for Technology and Statecraft (CTS), carried by Taiwan media over the weekend. About 270 are NXT:1980i machines, which can still be shipped to China under case-by-case Dutch licenses, and the authors recommend a full ban on these tools, spare parts and servicing.

China spent more than US$13bn on NXT:1980i tools in 2024 and bought 89 more in 2025, the report says, and China made up 41% of ASML's net sales in 2024 and 33% in 2025. Chipmakers have adapted these tools, a generation behind the EUV (extreme ultraviolet) machines China cannot buy, to make 7nm logic and AI processors including Huawei's Ascend.

The report sizes the stakes: if imports continue at the 2024 to 2025 pace, China's tools could support output equal to 434m NVIDIA (NVDA US) H100 chips a year by 2035, against 153m if shipments stop before 2027. A bipartisan US bill introduced in April, the MATCH Act, targets the same equipment, and some senators renewed calls to pass it in September. A vote on that bill or a new Dutch rule would turn the recommendation into a constraint on ASML's China sales.

Linked stocks: ASML NA, NVDA US, 2330 TT

先聲 First Word: Exclusives from Chinese-Language Sources

Quanta stops supplying HP for a week to force a price increase

Quanta Computer (2382 TT), the largest notebook contract manufacturer, reportedly cut off supply to HP (HPQ US) for one week in September to push HP into accepting higher prices, DigiTimes reported. Rising component costs are squeezing notebook assemblers, and Quanta's fast-growing AI server business gives it room to push back on price. (04 Oct 2026) Source: 廣達罕見對惠普「斷供一週」大談價　伺服器業務撐腰成底氣

Chunghwa Precision Test's 3Q26 revenue rises 53% to a record

Chunghwa Precision Test (6510 TT), a Taiwan maker of probe cards and test boards, reported 3Q26 revenue of NT$1.91bn, up 53.4% YoY and 16.2% QoQ, and nine-month revenue already above its 2025 total. AI and custom AI chip customers drove the growth, and its lines are running full while it adds capacity. (04 Oct 2026) Source: 精測9月、Q3營收雙創新高 前三季已超越去年全年

China's WG Tech plans glass substrate capacity eight times SKC's

WG Tech, a Chinese glass maker, has started its second phase of glass core substrate lines with through-glass vias, aiming for capacity of 1m square meters a year, about eight times SKC's (011790 KS), DigiTimes reported. Chinese makers are building lines first and qualifying later, while Korean rivals validate each step before committing. (05 Oct 2026) Source: 先建產線再驗證　中國玻璃基板量產速度超南韓、SKC產能僅沃格8分之1