Winbond 2Q26 Preview: The Street's Full Year Needs Monthly Revenue 22% Above June's Record
Winbond is expected to report 2Q26 results on 5 August. The quarter's revenue is already public: reported monthlies put 2Q26 at NT$59.8bn, up 56% QoQ, with June the sixth consecutive record month. The release's new information is profitability and the pricing outlook. The street's FY26E revenue of NT$248.6bn implies second-half monthly revenue averaging NT$25.1bn, 22% above June's record, and management's pricing commentary on 5 August is the direct test of that path.
Key Takeaways
2Q26 revenue is already reported: NT$59.8bn, up 56% QoQ
Winbond reports monthly, so the quarter closed in public view: June revenue of NT$20.6bn was the sixth consecutive record month. What the 5 August release adds is the margin print and the pricing outlook.
Can gross margin keep climbing from 1Q26's 53.4%?
1Q26 gross margin printed 53.4%, up from 34.9% for FY2025, and management said 2Q price increases would be no smaller than 1Q's. The street's full-year gross profit implies a 65.8% margin, so the 2Q print needs to show the climb continuing.
Will the pricing message support the second-half acceleration the street models?
The street's FY26E revenue of NT$248.6bn leaves NT$150.5bn for 2H26E, which means monthly revenue averaging NT$25.1bn against June's NT$20.6bn. Brokers report DDR4 contract prices rising into 4Q26; the 5 August outlook is where that path gets tested.
Into the print at 7.9x forward earnings, just below the memory peer median
Winbond trades at 7.9x forward consensus earnings against an 8.5x peer median, after a roughly ninefold share-price rise over twelve months to NT$164.50. The stock sits 30% below its mid-June high of NT$233.50; a China memory maker's 1 July risk warning sent the group down more than 5% that session, and the pullback has extended since.
Company snapshot
Winbond Electronics is a Taiwan integrated maker of specialty memory: niche and customized DRAM, NOR flash, and its CUBE stacked DRAM for AI devices, manufactured at its own fabs in central and southern Taiwan. Its majority-owned subsidiary Nuvoton contributes the logic IC line, 21% of 1Q26 revenue. Customized Memory Solutions reached 47% of 1Q26 revenue, with applications spread across consumer, automotive and industrial, and communications. As Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron redirect capacity toward HBM for AI, Winbond's specialty DRAM and NOR flash have fallen into shortage, driving the price surge behind its current results.
What the street expects, and what is already reported
| Metric | 2Q26 | FY26E |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | NT$59.8bn reported (monthlies; +56% QoQ, +185% YoY) | street at NT$248.6bn (+178% YoY); not guided |
| Gross margin | not guided; 1Q26 printed 53.4% | street-implied 65.8% |
| Net profit | not guided; 1Q26 printed NT$10.1bn | street at NT$97.0bn |
| Reported to date | quarter complete on monthlies | 1H26 NT$98.1bn (+139% YoY), 39% of the street's year |
Source: Winbond disclosures, MOPS monthly filings, Bloomberg consensus (14 Jul 2026), Zero One Investment Research
Winbond does not issue numeric revenue or margin guidance; the outlook arrives as pricing and capacity commentary at the quarterly results conference. The street consensus above is Bloomberg consensus pulled on 14 July; the full-year gross margin is implied by the street's gross profit of NT$163.6bn on revenue of NT$248.6bn.
Recent developments ahead of the print
- Media reports put Winbond inside TSMC's AI packaging supply chain. Taiwan press and industry reports in late June said Winbond's CUBE stacked DRAM will supply TSMC's wafer-on-wafer advanced packaging for AI applications, easing TSMC's dependence on the three global DRAM majors for tightly supplied AI memory (TechNews, 30 June; TradingKey, 29 June). Neither company has announced terms, volumes, or a timeline.
- NOR flash is reported entering NVIDIA's supply chain. DigiTimes reported on 17 June that Winbond NOR flash will ship into NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform as volumes ramp in 2H26E, with industry sources putting Winbond's potential share of that platform's NOR demand at up to half.
- Brokers keep raising the Taiwan memory group. A US broker raised target prices across Winbond, Nanya Tech, Macronix, and Powerchip in late June, expecting DDR4 prices to keep rising into 4Q26 with channel inventory below two weeks (Economic Daily News, 26 June).
- A China risk warning hit the group on 1 July. GigaDevice, China's NOR flash leader, said on 1 July that memory prices sit at historic highs and could pull back materially; Winbond, Nanya Tech, and Macronix each fell more than 5% that session (cnYES, 1 July). Winbond closed at NT$164.50 on 14 July, 30% below its mid-June high of NT$233.50.
- Management frames memory as strategic material. In a 28 June DigiTimes interview, Winbond's Chen Pei-ming said AI demand has broken the industry's traditional price cycle and lifted the position of niche memory makers, with Winbond expanding both its DRAM and flash lines.
How the quarter tracked: fully reported before the release
Winbond reports monthly revenue, so 2Q26 is complete in public data.
| 2Q26 month | Revenue | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | NT$19.2bn | +32.7% | +182% |
| May | NT$20.0bn | +3.9% | +182% |
| June | NT$20.6bn | +3.0% | +190% |
| 2Q26 total | NT$59.8bn | +56% QoQ | +185% |
Source: MOPS monthly filings, Zero One Investment Research
- 1H26 revenue is already tracking at 39% of the street's full year. NT$98.1bn reported against the street's NT$248.6bn FY26E, with contract prices still rising at the half's end.
- The street's implied 2H26E needs NT$150.5bn, up 53% over 1H26. That requires monthly revenue averaging NT$25.1bn, 22% above June's record NT$20.6bn. June's run-rate held flat would deliver about NT$123.6bn, leaving the street's implied second half roughly NT$27bn short without further price increases.
Source: MOPS monthly filings, Zero One Investment Research
Source: MOPS monthly filings, Bloomberg consensus (14 Jul 2026), Zero One Investment Research
Guidance and our numbers: no numeric guide, a street moving up fast
At the 5 May results conference management said 2Q26 price increases would be no smaller than 1Q26's and could extend into 3Q26, and held FY2026 capital spending at NT$40bn, 95% of it going to wafer fabs (results-conference coverage, BigGo Finance, 5 May). The 5 August release is where those messages get updated.
The street's FY26E stands at NT$248.6bn revenue and NT$97.0bn net profit, revised up 23% and 32% respectively since April. Our model carries FY26E revenue of NT$202.8bn and net profit of NT$73.6bn, in line with where the street stood in April; we will revisit our numbers with the 2Q26 release.
Source: Winbond disclosures, Bloomberg consensus (14 Jul 2026), Zero One Investment Research
What to expect from the release
- Revenue confirmation at NT$59.8bn, up 56% QoQ. The monthlies are already filed; the release adds the mix behind them, including how much of the growth came from price against bit shipments.
- A gross margin print above 1Q26's 53.4%. Management guided 2Q price increases no smaller than 1Q's onto fully loaded fabs. Even a 2Q print near 60% would leave the second half needing gross margin above 70% to reach the street's implied 65.8% year.
- A 3Q26 pricing message that tests the street's second-half shape. The street's year needs 2H26E monthlies averaging NT$25.1bn. Broker channel work has DDR4 prices rising into 4Q26; a repeat or strengthening of May's message would support the street's acceleration, while softer language would put the year's number in question.
- Any move from media reports to company disclosure on the AI engagements. The TSMC CUBE supply reports and the NVIDIA NOR ramp are so far unconfirmed by Winbond. Watch for formal comment, sizing, and timeline, and whether FY2026 capex moves from the NT$40bn plan.
The three issues that matter on 5 August
The quarter's revenue is known, so the release matters where it can change the multi-year picture. Three issues do.
- Does the pricing message support the street's second-half acceleration? The checks: the 3Q26 price direction against May's message that increases could extend into 3Q26, and whether specialty DRAM and NOR contract pricing matches the broker channel work pointing into 4Q26. The street's year needs 2H26E monthly revenue averaging NT$25.1bn, 22% above June's record.
- Can gross margin climb fast enough to make the street's implied year? The checks: the 2Q26 print against 1Q26's 53.4%, the Customized Memory Solutions share of revenue against 47% in 1Q26, and the drag from the lower-margin Nuvoton logic line. Even a 2Q print near 60% leaves the second half needing above 70%.
- Do the AI engagements move to disclosure, and does capacity respond? The checks: any company comment on the reported TSMC CUBE wafer supply and the NVIDIA Vera Rubin NOR ramp, the FY2026 capex number against the NT$40bn plan, and management's read on China supply after GigaDevice's 1 July warning, since a faster industry capacity response is the main threat to the pricing cycle driving the street's numbers.
Valuation: just below the memory peer median on forward earnings
Winbond goes into the print at 7.9x forward consensus earnings on the FMP estimates behind the table below, against an 8.5x peer median on the same basis, with Micron at 12.8x, Nanya Tech at 8.0x, and the two Korean majors near 6x. On the Bloomberg street net profit of NT$97.0bn used earlier in this note, the multiple is 7.6x. Forward EV/EBITDA of 13.6x sits slightly above the 12.0x peer median. The trailing 48.8x P/E reflects trailing quarters that still carry pre-upturn results and says little about the current earnings level.
| Company | Mkt cap (US$bn) | P/E (TTM) | P/E (Fwd) | EV/Sales (TTM) | EV/Sales (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | EV/EBITDA (Fwd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Listed | |||||||
| Micron | 1,058.2 | 20.9x | 12.8x | 11.5x | 8.0x | 23.1x | 16.1x |
| Taiwan-Listed | |||||||
| Nanya Technology | 43.2 | 40.1x | 8.0x | 12.2x | 4.3x | 25.4x | 12.0x |
| Powerchip | 9.2 | 39.3x | 12.5x | 6.0x | 4.2x | 363.9x | n.m. |
| Macronix | 8.4 | n.m. | 8.9x | 8.3x | 3.3x | 65.7x | 19.3x |
| International | |||||||
| Samsung Electronics | 1,173.8 | 21.0x | 5.6x | 4.4x | 2.4x | 12.1x | 8.8x |
| SK Hynix | 908.6 | 17.8x | 5.9x | 10.2x | 3.8x | 12.5x | 8.1x |
| Median (All Peers) | 21.0x | 8.5x | 9.2x | 4.0x | 24.2x | 12.0x | |
| Winbond† | 23.0 | 48.8x | 7.9x | 7.3x | 3.2x | 24.8x | 13.6x |
Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Prices as of 14 Jul 2026. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year (FMP consensus). P/E shown as n.m. where net margin is below 5% or the multiple exceeds 150x: near-break-even earnings make it unstable and non-comparable. † FMP operating-income defect adjudicated 2026-07-07; EBIT-derived trailing multiples treated with caution.
Terms of Use
If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use this document. Clearsight Systems Pte. Ltd. ("Zero One") provides this document subject to the terms and conditions set forth herein. By accessing or using this document, you agree to be bound by these terms.
This Report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or subscribe to any security or investment product in any jurisdiction. You should consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Independence of Research
This Report represents the independent research and views of Zero One Investment Research, a division of Clearsight Systems.
Regulatory Disclosures - United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
This Report is intended for institutional investors and is distributed in reliance upon the "publisher's exclusion" from the definition of "investment adviser" under Section 202(a)(11) of the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940.
Regulatory Disclosures - Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
This Report is distributed in Singapore by Clearsight Systems Pte. Ltd., which is registered as an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore. This Report is intended for accredited investors and institutional investors only.
This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. It is provided solely for general information and does not constitute financial advice as defined under the Financial Advisers Act.
Disclaimer, Exclusions, and Limitations of Liability
This document is provided for general informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any security or other investment, or to pursue any investment strategy. You acknowledge that Zero One is under no obligation to review, edit, or amend the contents of this document and that all statements, opinions, and information presented herein should be used with discretion.
This document and all its contents are provided "as is." Although based on information believed to be reliable and current, Zero One makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information contained herein.
Zero One shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or punitive damages of any kind, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), or otherwise, arising from the use or inability to use this document.
The information in this Report is not intended for use in any jurisdiction where such use would be unlawful or subject Zero One to any registration or licensing requirements. Zero One is not licensed or regulated in any jurisdiction other than Singapore.
Indemnification
By using this document, you agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless Zero One and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, and representatives from and against any and all claims, liabilities, damages, and expenses arising from your use of this document.
Severability
If any provision of these terms is held to be unlawful, invalid, or unenforceable, such provision shall be deemed severed and the remainder of the terms shall remain in full force and effect.
Governing Law
These terms, as well as any claims arising from or related thereto, are governed by the laws of Singapore without reference to the principles of conflicts of laws thereof. You agree to submit to the personal jurisdiction of the courts located in Singapore.