TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide
TSMC reports 2Q26 results on 16 July. With June revenue now in, a record NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% from May), the full quarter totals NT$1,270.4bn, or about US$40.1bn at the guide's own NT$31.7 per US$ assumption, landing at the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guided band. With revenue settled, the question that can still move the multi-year picture is the full year: first-half revenue is up 35.6% YoY against a guide of "above 30%", the street's full-year forecast implies about +37%, and the seasonally stronger half is still ahead, so a lift to the growth guide on 16 July is a live possibility.
Key Takeaways
Will full-year guidance be increased?
First-half revenue is up 35.6% YoY, already well above the "above 30%" full-year bar with the seasonally stronger half and the N2 ramp still ahead. The street's full-year forecast already implies about +37%, which shows some expectation of a guidance raise partially baked in.
The full quarter's revenue is in, at the upper end of the guide
June printed a record NT$442.68bn (+6.2% from May, +67.9% YoY), bringing 2Q26 revenue to NT$1,270.4bn. At the guide's NT$31.7 per US$ assumption that is about US$40.1bn, the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guided range and roughly 1% above the midpoint.
Will the N2 margin-dilution message change?
Management has guided 2-3pp of FY26 gross-margin dilution from the N2 ramp. Whether that number is repeated matters more than where 2Q lands in the 65.5-67.5% band, because a wider figure would reach into FY27E and beyond.
The stock goes into the print priced relatively inexpensive
TSMC trades at 24.4x forward earnings, below a 51.5x peer median that is distorted by near-breakeven foundries. On EV/EBITDA it trades at 16.6x forward against a 21.3x median, on the same reading of the numbers.
Company snapshot
TSMC is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry and the sole manufacturer at the leading edge for most of the industry's flagship AI and smartphone silicon. Its N2 (2nm) node enters volume production in 2026, and its CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity is the industry's key bottleneck resource for AI accelerators. The company runs its core fabs in Taiwan with overseas capacity ramping in Arizona, Kumamoto, and Dresden. Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm are among its anchor customers.
What the company guided, and what the street expects
| Metric | 2Q26 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | US$39.0-40.2bn guided (+32% YoY at midpoint) | "above 30%" growth guided; street NT$5,214bn (+36.9%) |
| Gross margin | 65.5-67.5% guided | not guided |
| Operating margin | 56.5-58.5% guided | not guided |
| Reported to date | 2Q26 (Apr-Jun) NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn (upper end of guide) | Jan-Jun NT$2,404.5bn (+35.6% YoY) |
| Capex | not guided | high end of US$52-56bn guided |
Our model carries FY26E revenue of NT$5.2tn and net profit of NT$2.6tn, in line with the street. The guide's stated NT$31.7 per US$ is the rate we use to translate the US dollar revenue range into New Taiwan dollars throughout this note.
Recent developments ahead of the print
- TSMC is raising leading-edge prices again. Industry reports in early July say TSMC has told major customers, including Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, of price increases of roughly 5-10% on advanced nodes, with the largest rises on 3nm in the second half. It would be the fourth consecutive year of increases and a direct offset to the N2 and overseas-fab margin drag.
- N2 is sold out and packaging is still the binding constraint. TSMC's entire 2026 2nm capacity is reported as fully booked, with Apple and Nvidia taking the initial allocation. In advanced packaging, Nvidia is reported to hold roughly 60% of CoWoS output, and TrendForce estimates the supply-demand gap narrows from about 20% to about 10% by year-end as new capacity comes online.
- Capex expectations are drifting up. Analysts increasingly expect the FY26 budget to finish at or above the guided US$52-56bn, and some have lifted 2027 estimates further on AI demand and higher wafer prices. TSMC also continues to expand its Arizona footprint, where power, water, and visa timelines remain the practical constraints on the build.
- June set an all-time revenue record. TSMC's June monthly, delayed a few days by a mid-July typhoon, printed at NT$442.68bn, up 67.9% YoY and 6.2% from May, an all-time high. It brings 2Q26 revenue to NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn at the guide's NT$31.7 per US$, at the upper end of the guided band, so the revenue line is now settled going into the release.
How the quarter came in: record June at upper end of the guide
TSMC reports monthly revenue, so all of 2Q26 is now public.
| 2Q26 month | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| April | NT$410.7bn | +17.5% |
| May | NT$417.0bn | +30.1% |
| June (record month) | NT$442.68bn | +67.9% |
| 2Q26 total | NT$1,270.4bn (about US$40.1bn) | upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guide |
At the guide's NT$31.7 per US$ assumption, the US$39.0-40.2bn range maps to NT$1,236-1,274bn, with a midpoint of NT$1,255bn. The reported NT$1,270.4bn is about US$40.1bn, roughly 1% above the midpoint and just shy of the US$40.2bn top:
- Low end (US$39.0bn / NT$1,236bn): cleared by about NT$34bn.
- Midpoint (US$39.6bn / NT$1,255bn): beaten by about 1%.
- Top (US$40.2bn / NT$1,274bn): NT$1,270.4bn, essentially at the top of the range.
The record June (NT$442.68bn) did the work: it came in above the roughly NT$428bn a midpoint result needed and close to the roughly NT$447bn the very top implied. That settles the revenue line; gross margin, the full-year guide, and capex are what remain for 16 July.
What to expect from the release
- Revenue confirmed at the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn range. The monthly prints already put 2Q26 at NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn; the release formalizes a number that is no longer in question.
- Gross margin inside the 65.5-67.5% band, with the N2 dilution message unchanged. We expect management to repeat the 2-3pp full-year dilution guide; any widening of that number would be the release's most consequential margin news.
- A live chance the full-year growth guide is raised. First-half revenue is up 35.6% YoY against "above 30%" guidance, with the stronger half and the N2 ramp ahead. At minimum we expect the growth language to firm toward a number; the street's implied +37% is the benchmark.
- FY26 capex confirmed at the high end of US$52-56bn, with early framing of FY27 spending tied to N2 demand and packaging expansion.
The three issues that matter on 16 July
The quarter's revenue is already visible in the monthlies, so the release matters where it can change the multi-year picture. Three issues do.
- Does full-year guidance get increased? First-half revenue is up 35.6% YoY, already well above the "above 30%" full-year bar, so the updated full-year language is the release's biggest single item and an increase is a live possibility. The 3Q26 revenue guide asks the same question forward: the street's implied +37% needs second-half growth near 40% YoY. Packaging is the constraint on that path, so whether CoWoS capacity still caps AI shipments into 1H27 tells you how much of the demand is deliverable.
- Does TSMC continue to guide the same N2 dilution? Management has guided 2-3pp of FY26 gross-margin dilution from the N2 ramp, partly offset by the leading-edge price increases now being put through. A repeat of that dilution guide as N2 volume builds supports a mid-60s% gross margin into FY27E; a wider number reaches further out. Where 2Q lands in the 65.5-67.5% band is secondary.
- Does capex accelerate into FY27? FY26 was guided to the high end of US$52-56bn. Any first framing of FY27 spending, and the split toward advanced packaging, is the supply-side signal of how long management expects the AI cycle to run, and the read-through for the equipment and packaging chain.
Valuation: priced relatively inexpensive
TSMC goes into the print at 24.4x forward and 32.9x trailing earnings. That sits below the peer median of 51.5x forward, but the median is not a clean benchmark here: it is pulled up by foundries whose earnings are depressed or near breakeven, with Intel at 101.6x forward, Tower at 66.7x, and SMIC and Hua Hong not meaningful. A headline "discount" on that basis says more about their denominators than about TSMC's price. The multiple worth reading is TSMC's own. At 24.4x forward earnings for a business growing revenue about 37% this year and holding a mid-60s% gross margin, the stock is priced inexpensively. On EV/EBITDA it trades at 16.6x forward, below the 21.3x median, on the same logic. The full-year guide on 16 July is the nearest catalyst that can move the forward multiple.
| Company | Mkt cap (US$bn) | P/E (TTM) | P/E (Fwd) | EV/Sales (TTM) | EV/Sales (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | EV/EBITDA (Fwd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Listed | |||||||
| Intel | 552.1 | n.m. | 101.6x | 10.8x | 9.9x | 50.9x | 39.1x |
| UMC† | 60.7 | 37.9x | n.m. | 7.7x | 6.7x | 15.8x | 13.9x |
| GlobalFoundries | 37.8 | 48.9x | 36.4x | 5.5x | 5.2x | 17.2x | 15.9x |
| Tower Semiconductor | 24.9 | 102.2x | 66.7x | 15.3x | 13.1x | 48.8x | 34.1x |
| International | |||||||
| Samsung Electronics | 1,146.8 | 20.7x | 5.6x | 4.3x | 2.3x | 11.9x | 8.7x |
| SMIC | 102.3 | n.m. | n.m. | 15.1x | 12.7x | 34.8x | 21.3x |
| Hua Hong Semiconductor | 38.8 | n.m. | n.m. | 15.0x | 12.7x | 76.2x | 39.9x |
| Median (All Peers) | 43.4x | 51.5x | 10.8x | 9.9x | 34.8x | 21.3x | |
| TSMC | 1,981.5 | 32.9x | 24.4x | 15.0x | 11.7x | 20.8x | 16.6x |
Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Prices as of 13 Jul 2026. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year (FMP consensus). P/E shown as n.m. where net margin is below 5% or the multiple exceeds 150x: near-break-even earnings make it unstable and non-comparable. † UMC trailing EBIT-based multiples are approximate.
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