MediaTek 3Q26 Preview: Fourth-Quarter Revenue Needs Only 14-18% Growth to Meet the Full-Year Target

NT$168.1bn

3Q26 revenue filed, 5% above the guide top

NT$191-198bn

4Q26E revenue needed for the target high end

46%

3Q26 gross margin guide midpoint

27.9x

P/E on street FY27E earnings

Key Takeaways

Will the fourth-quarter guide go past the full-year target?

The high end of the target, high-single-digit growth in US dollars, needs only NT$191-198bn of fourth-quarter revenue at NT$32.5, up 14-18% QoQ, and the street's FY26E implies NT$192.2bn. With a full quarter of 2nm flagship sales and the first data-center ASIC entering production, we expect a guide of NT$200-215bn, which would put 2026 growth at 9-12% in US dollars.

3Q26 revenue already filed at NT$168.1bn, 5% above the guide top

Monthly filings put the quarter up 10% QoQ and 18% YoY, with August a record month at NT$64.2bn. The NT$152.2-159.8bn range was set at NT$32 to the US dollar and the quarter averaged about NT$32.0, so the beat came from volume, not currency.

Did gross margin hold near the 46% midpoint?

On the filed revenue, the 44.5-47.5% range is NT$74.8-79.8bn of gross profit. We expect 45.5-46.5% and EPS of NT$16.6-18.2, against NT$15.28 in 2Q26.

Will management hold its 2027 data-center targets?

In July management put the 2027 market for its data-center chips at US$80bn and raised its share target to 15-20%, or US$12-16bn of revenue. The street's FY27E revenue of NT$1,142.2bn, up 73%, needs data-center revenue near the top of that range, after October reports that Google is redesigning its TPU v9 project.

Shares at NT$4,010, 24% below the September record close

The shares fell from NT$5,285 on 24 September as reports on the TPU v9 project spread and foreign investors sold for three weeks. They trade at 58.0x the street's FY26E earnings and 27.9x FY27E; Broadcom trades at 27.5x its year to November 2026.

Share price - 2454 TT — Oct 2025 to Oct 2026 (NT$).

Company snapshot

MediaTek (2454 TT) is the largest smartphone chip designer by unit volume and a fabless supplier of chips for TVs, Wi-Fi routers, PCs, cars and, from the fourth quarter of 2026, custom AI accelerators for data centers. Fabless means it designs the chips and buys manufacturing from foundries, mainly TSMC. In 2Q26 Smart Edge Platforms (connectivity, computing, TV, automotive and data-center chips) were 53% of revenue, Mobile Phone 41% and Power IC 6%. Revenue was NT$596.0bn in 2025.

Expectations snapshot

MediaTek releases 3Q26 results and hosts an online investor conference on 30 October at 15:00 Taipei time (MOPS filing, 16 October). The table carries the quarter's guide, what the monthly filings already show, the street's numbers and ours.

Exhibit 1: MediaTek 3Q26, 4Q26E, FY26E and FY27E expectations

Metric	3Q26	4Q26E	FY26E	FY27E
Revenue	Guided NT$152.2-159.8bn (US$4.76-4.99bn at NT$32); filed NT$168.1bn (+10% QoQ, +18% YoY)	Guide due 30 Oct; street implied NT$192.2bn; Zero One NT$200-215bn	Guided high end of high-single-digit US$ growth (about NT$660-667bn); street NT$661.6bn; Zero One NT$669-684bn	Not guided; street NT$1,142.2bn (+73%); Zero One NT$1,142.2bn
Gross margin	Guided 44.5-47.5% (NT$74.8-79.8bn on filed revenue); Zero One 45.5-46.5%	Not yet guided; Zero One below 46%	Guided inside 44.5-47.5%	Not guided
Operating expense ratio	Guided 29-33%; Zero One 29.5-30.5% (NT$49.5-51.0bn)	Not yet guided	Not guided	Not guided
Net profit	Not guided (2Q26: NT$24.3bn, EPS NT$15.28); Zero One NT$26.5-29.0bn, EPS NT$16.6-18.2	Street implied about NT$33bn on our 3Q26 midpoint	Street NT$109.3bn	Street NT$229.2bn (+110%)
Reported to date	All three months filed (NT$168.1bn)	October due 10 November	Jan-Sep NT$469.4bn (+5% YoY), 71% of the street figure; 1H26 EPS NT$30.45	n/a

Source: MediaTek monthly revenue filings (MOPS), 2Q26 press release and prepared remarks (31 July 2026), FMP consensus estimates (25 analysts), Zero One Investment Research. FY26E guided range converts the target at each quarter's average rate and NT$32.5 for 4Q26E.

Recent developments

The investor conference is set for 30 October. MediaTek's material-information filing of 16 October set the 3Q26 results and online investor conference for 30 October at 15:00 Taipei time, where management will give the fourth-quarter outlook (MOPS filing, 16 October).
August set a monthly revenue record and the quarter finished above the guide. August revenue rose 32% MoM and 44% YoY to NT$64.2bn, a company record; September fell 14% MoM to NT$55.4bn, up 2% YoY, and January to September revenue of NT$469.4bn was up 5% (MOPS monthly revenue filings; TechNews, 10 September).
The 2nm flagship phone chip launched in September. MediaTek unveiled the Dimensity 9600 Pro, its first flagship made on TSMC's 2nm process, in mid-September, with phones using it on sale from the same month (TrendForce, 15 September). Industry reports put the chip's price at up to US$220, a record for a MediaTek flagship; the company does not disclose chip prices, and in July it said it is raising prices to reflect higher costs across the supply chain.
Reports of a TPU v9 redesign hit the shares. DigiTimes reported on 20 October that Google is redesigning its TPU v9 project, which could delay the volume ramp (DigiTimes, 20 October). Local press also cited concerns over the yield of Intel's EMIB-T packaging for the chip and competition from Broadcom, Marvell and AMD for the next generation, TPU v10 (Liberty Times, 22 October). Foreign investors sold a net 37,121 lots of the shares between 29 September and 21 October (Liberty Times, 22 October).
ByteDance is reported to be in advanced talks for custom chips. ByteDance is in advanced talks with MediaTek to buy custom data-center chips, and an agreement could come soon, according to people familiar with the matter (DigiTimes Asia citing Bloomberg, 16 October). MediaTek has not commented, and in July said it is working with several customers on data-center ASIC projects.
A US brokerage expects fourth-quarter revenue up about 30%. Citi expects 3Q26 gross margin of 46% and operating margin of 15%, both at the guide midpoints, and fourth-quarter revenue up about 30% QoQ as AI ASIC revenue begins; it raised its EPS estimates by 9% for 2026 and 25% for 2027 and kept its US$40bn estimate for 2028 AI ASIC revenue (Economic Daily News, 23 October).

Third-quarter revenue is filed 5% above the guide top, and the full-year target needs NT$191-198bn in the fourth

All three months of the quarter are filed, so revenue is settled before the release. The quarter's NT$168.1bn is 5.2% above the NT$159.8bn top of the guide and 7.7% above the midpoint, and up 10.4% QoQ after three quarters between NT$149bn and NT$153bn.

Exhibit 2: MediaTek monthly revenue, third quarter 2025 and 2026

Month	2025 (NT$bn)	2026 (NT$bn)	YoY	MoM 2026
July	43.22	48.47	+12.2%	-16.4%
August	44.55	64.18	+44.1%	+32.4%
September	54.33	55.40	+2.0%	-13.7%
Third quarter	142.10	168.06	+18.3%	+10.4% QoQ
3Q26 guide		152.2-159.8
January to September	445.78	469.39	+5.3%

Source: MediaTek monthly consolidated revenue filings (MOPS), 2Q26 prepared remarks, Zero One Investment Research.

July revenue of NT$48.5bn was up 12% YoY; August's NT$64.2bn was the highest month on record, up 44% YoY; September's NT$55.4bn was up 2% YoY against a strong September 2025.
Management's 3Q26 outlook had Mobile Phone flat to down mid-single digits QoQ and Smart Edge Platforms up mid-to-high single digits. Revenue up 10% means at least one of the groups ran well ahead of that; we think phones on the flagship launch, and the release will show which.
January to September revenue of NT$469.4bn is about US$14.8bn at each quarter's average exchange rate. Against 2025 revenue of about US$19.1bn, growth of 8-9% for the year needs US$5.9-6.1bn in the fourth quarter, or NT$191-198bn at the current NT$32.5. The street's FY26E of NT$661.6bn leaves NT$192.2bn, up 14% QoQ and 28% YoY.

Exhibit 3: MediaTek quarterly revenue, 1Q25 to 3Q26 filed and 4Q26E implied by street FY26E (NT$bn)

MediaTek quarterly revenue held between NT$142bn and NT$153bn from 1Q25 to 2Q26, rose to NT$168bn in 3Q26, and the street's FY26E implies NT$192bn in 4Q26E

Source: MediaTek quarterly results and monthly revenue filings (MOPS), FMP consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. 4Q26E is street FY26E revenue of NT$661.6bn less the NT$469.4bn filed for January to September.

The fourth-quarter revenue the full-year target needs is therefore close to what the street already carries. A guide above NT$198bn would take 2026 above the top of the high-single-digit target. A guide near NT$192bn would mean the first ASIC adds less in its opening quarter than a 30% QoQ step implies.

Management guided 46% gross margin and a data-center ASIC in production from the fourth quarter

For 3Q26 the company guided revenue of NT$152.2-159.8bn at NT$32 to the US dollar, gross margin of 46% plus or minus 1.5 points and an operating expense ratio of 31% plus or minus 2 points. For the full year management said in July that it aims for the high end of its target of high-single-digit growth in US dollars, with gross margin inside the 44.5-47.5% quarterly range through pricing that passes on higher supply-chain costs (2Q26 prepared remarks, 31 July).

On data centers, management said production of its first AI accelerator ASIC for a major US cloud provider starts in the fourth quarter, that data-center revenue should exceed US$2bn in 2026 and scale substantially in 2027, and that a second accelerator is on track for high-volume production in 2028. The board also approved a discretionary US$5bn financing budget to secure supply-chain capacity. In phones, management expects global smartphone units to fall about 15% in 2026 as memory and other component costs rise.

The street expects FY26E revenue of NT$661.6bn, up 11%, and net profit of NT$109.3bn, then FY27E revenue of NT$1,142.2bn, up 73%, with net profit of NT$229.2bn (FMP consensus, 25 analysts). The FY27E numbers rest almost entirely on data-center ASIC revenue, so the conference's commentary on 2027 matters more to the shares than the third-quarter margin.

Our forecast for 4Q26E revenue is NT$200-215bn, up 19-28% QoQ, which puts FY26E at NT$669-684bn, 1-3% above the street's NT$661.6bn. The difference rests on a full quarter of 2nm flagship phone chip sales and on the first accelerator ASIC, which management said enters production in the quarter; how much revenue the ASIC adds in its opening quarter is the swing factor. If the rest of the business holds near the 3Q26 level of NT$168.1bn, our range implies NT$32-47bn of ASIC revenue in the quarter, US$1.0-1.4bn at NT$32.5, against about US$0.7bn in the street's NT$192.2bn; management has said data-center revenue will exceed US$2bn in 2026. For FY27E we carry the street's NT$1,142.2bn. The two FY26E numbers converge if the guide lands near NT$192bn, which would mean the ASIC ramp starts slower than the July commentary implied.

Exhibit 4: MediaTek annual revenue, FY22 to FY25 reported and FY26E to FY27E street (NT$bn)

MediaTek annual revenue was NT$549bn in FY22, NT$433bn in FY23, NT$531bn in FY24 and NT$596bn in FY25; the street expects NT$662bn in FY26E and NT$1,142bn in FY27E

Source: MediaTek annual results, FMP consensus estimates (25 analysts), Zero One Investment Research.

What to expect from the release

Gross margin of 45.5-46.5% and operating margin of 15.2-17.0%. Higher flagship chip prices and the pricing actions announced in July support the margin, while the guide's 46% midpoint was set for a quarter with less revenue. Operating expenses should rise to NT$49.5-51.0bn from NT$47.4bn on R&D for 2nm and data-center projects, below the guided 31% of revenue because revenue came in higher.
Net profit of NT$26.5-29.0bn, for EPS of NT$16.6-18.2. That compares with NT$24.3bn and EPS of NT$15.28 in 2Q26, and assumes non-operating income near the NT$5.1bn of 2Q26. The street's FY26E net profit of NT$109.3bn, less NT$48.5bn in the first half, then needs about NT$33bn in the fourth quarter on our 3Q26 midpoint.
A fourth-quarter revenue guide of NT$200-215bn. We expect the full quarter of 2nm flagship sales and the first ASIC revenue to outweigh weaker mid-range phones. A guide in that range would take 2026 to 9-12% growth in US dollars and lead management to say the year will exceed its target.
A fourth-quarter gross margin guide below 46%. Custom ASICs usually carry lower gross margin than MediaTek's own chips because the customer owns much of the design, so a quarter in which they reach a meaningful share of revenue should guide margin toward the lower half of the range, with operating margin rising on the extra revenue.
The 2027 data-center targets reaffirmed. We expect management to keep the US$80bn market estimate and the 15-20% share target, and to describe the first accelerator's production as on schedule.

What investors should watch: three issues for the fourth quarter and 2027

The third-quarter revenue is filed and the margin guide is narrow. Three issues at the conference decide the 2026 and 2027 numbers; for each we give our expectation and the specific thing to check.

Does the fourth-quarter guide go past NT$198bn? The high end of the full-year target needs NT$191-198bn and the street carries NT$192.2bn; we expect NT$200-215bn. Check the revenue range and its exchange-rate assumption, whether management restates data-center revenue above US$2bn for 2026 and confirms the first ASIC is in production, and whether the full-year language moves from the high end of high single digits to a higher number.
Are the 2027 data-center targets intact after the TPU v9 reports? The street's FY27E revenue of NT$1,142.2bn, about US$35bn at NT$32.5, needs data-center revenue near US$16bn, the top of the 15-20% share target, if the rest of the business holds its 2026 level. Check whether management keeps the US$80bn market estimate and the share target, what it says on the timing of the first accelerator's successor and the second ASIC due in 2028, any new customer or design win, and how it plans to use the US$5bn financing budget.
Where does gross margin go as ASICs reach revenue? Check 3Q26 gross margin against the 46% midpoint and 46.2% in 2Q26, the fourth-quarter margin guide, and inventory, which had risen to 102 days at the end of 2Q26 from 66 a year earlier. A fourth-quarter guide that holds 46% with ASIC revenue rising would mean the price increases on phone and edge chips are covering the lower-margin custom work.

Valuation and peer comparables

At NT$4,010 MediaTek trades at 58.0x FMP's FY26E EPS consensus. On the street's FY27E net profit of NT$229.2bn, NT$143.5 a share over 1,597m shares, the multiple is 27.9x. Forward EV/EBITDA is 41.9x on FY26E (Exhibit 5).

Against peers the shares trade at a premium. Broadcom trades at 27.5x forward earnings for its fiscal year to November 2026 and Marvell at 54.2x for its year to January 2027, against MediaTek's 58.0x for calendar 2026; MediaTek's 27.9x on FY27E is a year further out than Broadcom's multiple, so on the same year MediaTek is the more expensive. The six-peer median of 20.8x is not inflated by depressed-earnings names, but it is weighted to phone, automotive and display chips that carry no data-center ASIC growth.

On the current FY26E estimate the multiple was about 76x at the 24 September record close, before the shares fell 24%. The FY27E multiple of 27.9x depends on revenue rising 73% next year. A conference that keeps the 2027 data-center targets supports that multiple; a cut to the share target or a later start for the TPU v9 successor would leave the FY27E estimate carrying the risk.

Exhibit 5: MediaTek versus chip design peers

Company	Mkt cap (US$bn)	P/E (TTM)	P/E (Fwd)	EV/Sales (TTM)	EV/Sales (Fwd)	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	EV/EBITDA (Fwd)
US-Listed
Broadcom	1,535.6	39.9x	27.5x	17.6x	14.8x	30.0x	20.9x
Marvell Technology	200.1	74.9x	54.2x	21.3x	16.7x	42.4x	32.1x
Qualcomm	187.8	20.0x	17.4x	4.5x	4.4x	14.7x	13.0x
NXP Semiconductors	59.2	19.9x	15.5x	5.1x	4.7x	13.7x	11.2x
Taiwan-Listed
Realtek Semiconductor	12.2	27.8x	24.2x	3.0x	2.6x	21.4x	18.4x
Novatek Microelectronics	11.0	20.3x	16.8x	3.1x	2.7x	15.6x	11.3x
Peer median (all peers)		24.1x	20.8x	4.8x	4.5x	18.5x	15.7x
MediaTek	196.8	66.1x	58.0x	10.5x	9.4x	49.8x	41.9x

Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Prices at the latest Taipei and US closes before publication. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year per FMP consensus: December 2026 for MediaTek, NXP, Realtek and Novatek, November 2026 for Broadcom, January 2027 for Marvell and September 2027 for Qualcomm. Broadcom market cap is US$321.68 a share on about 4.77bn shares. MediaTek market cap is NT$6,405bn at NT$4,010 and 1,597m shares, converted at the FMP rate. P/B is not shown for this IP-driven group.

Disclaimer

If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use this document. Clearsight Systems Pte. Ltd. ("Zero One") provides this document subject to the terms and conditions set forth herein. By accessing or using this document, you agree to be bound by these terms.

This Report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or subscribe to any security or investment product in any jurisdiction. You should consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decisions.

Independence of Research

This Report represents the independent research and views of Zero One Investment Research, a division of Clearsight Systems. Zero One Investment Research and its principals may hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Regulatory Disclosures - United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

This Report is intended for institutional investors and is distributed in reliance upon the "publisher's exclusion" from the definition of "investment adviser" under Section 202(a)(11) of the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

Regulatory Disclosures - Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)

This Report is distributed in Singapore by Clearsight Systems Pte. Ltd., which is registered as an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore. This Report is intended for accredited investors and institutional investors only.

This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. It is provided solely for general information and does not constitute financial advice as defined under the Financial Advisers Act.

Disclaimer, Exclusions, and Limitations of Liability

This document is provided for general informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any security or other investment, or to pursue any investment strategy. You acknowledge that Zero One is under no obligation to review, edit, or amend the contents of this document and that all statements, opinions, and information presented herein should be used with discretion.

This document and all its contents are provided "as is." Although based on information believed to be reliable and current, Zero One makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information contained herein.

Zero One shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or punitive damages of any kind, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), or otherwise, arising from the use or inability to use this document.

The information in this Report is not intended for use in any jurisdiction where such use would be unlawful or subject Zero One to any registration or licensing requirements. Zero One is not licensed or regulated in any jurisdiction other than Singapore.

Indemnification

By using this document, you agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless Zero One and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, and representatives from and against any and all claims, liabilities, damages, and expenses arising from your use of this document.

Severability

If any provision of these terms is held to be unlawful, invalid, or unenforceable, such provision shall be deemed severed and the remainder of the terms shall remain in full force and effect.

Governing Law

These terms, as well as any claims arising from or related thereto, are governed by the laws of Singapore without reference to the principles of conflicts of laws thereof. You agree to submit to the personal jurisdiction of the courts located in Singapore.