Macronix 3Q26 Preview: Street Full-Year Estimates Need Fourth-Quarter Revenue to Rise 46%
Macronix's July, August and September revenue adds up to NT$24.2bn, up 27% QoQ and 195% YoY, and every month set a company record. The gains shrank as the quarter went on, from 11% MoM in July to 5% in August and 3% in September, because the 12-inch fab is fully loaded and price carried the increase.
The street's FY26E revenue of NT$89.2bn, net of the NT$53.8bn reported for January to September, leaves NT$35.4bn for the fourth quarter, or monthly sales averaging NT$11.8bn against September's NT$8.37bn. TrendForce expects fourth-quarter NAND contract prices up 15-20% and low-density NOR up 10-20%, so we expect revenue to rise again but well short of 46%, and the street's full-year figure to come down.
General manager Lu Chih-yuan said in July that some products already earn above 70% and that 80% is within reach as capacity arrives. Cost of goods sold was NT$6.8bn in 2Q26; if it stays near that level, 3Q26 gross margin would be about 72%, and part of the move again depends on inventory write-down reversals, which added more than NT$900m in 2Q26.
Macronix spent NT$0.5bn of capex in 2Q26 against a NT$37.8bn program, with equipment installation due to start in the second half of 2026, NOR capacity in the first half of 2027 and 3D NAND in the second half. The release should show how much spending moved into the third quarter and whether the 12-inch target of more than 30,000 wafers a month holds.
The shares have fallen 46% from their June high to NT$99.50, and the FY26E P/E of 5.5x is level with the memory peer median of 5.4x. The street's FY27E net income of NT$82.2bn is NT$41.5 a share, so at 2.4x that estimate the price assumes 2027 earnings stay near the 2026 level instead of doubling.
Company snapshot
Macronix International (2337 TT) is a Hsinchu-based maker of non-volatile memory. It designs and manufactures NOR flash, NAND flash including eMMC (embedded storage modules used in phones and other devices) and mask ROM in its own fabs, for consumer, communication, computing, automotive and networking customers. NAND including eMMC was 43% of sales in 2Q26 and NOR 48%. The company negotiates eMMC and SLC NAND prices monthly, and its 12-inch fab is fully loaded, so output grows only when equipment ordered this year is installed in 2027.
Expectations snapshot
Macronix reports 3Q26 results at an online investor conference on 27 October at 16:00 Taipei time (Market Observation Post System filing, 7 October). Macronix files revenue monthly, so the quarter's revenue is already public. The company does not publish numeric guidance; its outlook comes as commentary on prices, shipments and capacity.
| Metric | 3Q26 | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | NT$24.2bn reported (+27% QoQ, +195% YoY) | Not guided; street NT$89.2bn; our model NT$89.2bn | Not guided; street NT$156.6bn; our model NT$156.6bn |
| Gross margin | Not guided (2Q26: 64.4%); we expect about 70% | Not guided (1H26: 56.1%) | Not guided |
| Net income | Not guided; we expect about NT$11bn (EPS near NT$5.7) | Street NT$38.7bn | Street NT$82.2bn |
| Capex | Not guided (2Q26: NT$0.5bn) | NT$37.8bn program approved (NT$22bn plus NT$15.8bn); spending mostly 2027 | Not guided |
| Reported to date | Jul-Sep NT$24.2bn, all three months reported | Jan-Sep NT$53.8bn, +155% YoY, 60% of the street figure | n/a |
Recent developments
- Revenue set a record in each month of the quarter. Macronix reported July revenue of NT$7.72bn, up 11% MoM, then NT$8.15bn in August and NT$8.37bn in September, the sixth record month in a row. January to September revenue was NT$53.8bn, up 155% YoY and already above the NT$50.6bn full-year record set in 2021 (Macronix monthly revenue reports, TWSE MOPS; Economic Daily News, 8 October).
- Management said in July that margins have further to rise. At the 28 July conference, general manager Lu Chih-yuan said some NAND products already earn gross margins above 70% and that 80% is within reach as new capacity arrives, that eMMC prices were still rising under monthly negotiation with 8GB and 16GB parts in short supply, and that 32GB eMMC enters mass production in the fourth quarter. CFO Yeh Pei-fu said equipment installation starts in the second half of 2026, NOR capacity rises in the first half of 2027 and 3D NAND capacity in the second half (Next Apple, 28 July).
- NOR contract prices are still rising for high-density parts. TrendForce said on 14 September that NOR contract prices rose 100-120% in the first half, that 256Mb and larger parts could rise another 90-110% in the second half on AI server and automotive demand, and that 128Mb and smaller parts rise 10-20% in the fourth quarter as Chinese capacity arrives. It added that Macronix is giving its additional 12-inch capacity in 2026 to NAND and eMMC, which limits its NOR wafer starts. On 30 September TrendForce put fourth-quarter NAND contract prices up 15-20% QoQ and conventional DRAM up 10-15%.
- Peers reported higher prices and flat shipments. Nanya reported 3Q26 gross margin of 85.7% on 12 October, with DRAM selling prices up more than 60% QoQ and shipments down 4-6%, and said prices should rise again in the fourth quarter. Winbond's 3Q26 revenue rose 38% QoQ to NT$82.3bn; Taiwan brokerage estimates cited by the Commercial Times put its NOR prices up about 30% QoQ, SLC NAND and specialty DRAM up 40-50%, and fourth-quarter prices up 8-13% (TrendForce, 6 and 12 October; Focus Taiwan, 12 October).
- A Taiwan brokerage cut its estimates after the September revenue. The Commercial Times reported on 19 October that a local brokerage put third-quarter revenue at 92% of its estimate, with NOR prices up 40-60% QoQ, SLC NAND up 70-100% and eMMC up 20-30%, but NOR and SLC NAND shipments down as wafers moved to eMMC and eMMC yields improved less than expected. Its estimates carry 3Q26 gross margin of 71.5% and EPS of NT$6.1, 4Q26 revenue of NT$29.2bn and FY27 revenue of NT$144.7bn.
- The shares are 46% below their June high. Macronix closed at a high of NT$185.5 on 22 June, fell to NT$91.8 on 30 July after the second-quarter release, and recovered to NT$126.5 by 28 August. On 13 October the shares fell 8% to NT$106.5 as Taiwan memory stocks sold off on reports of a new DRAM architecture at China's CXMT and a sharp fall in Korean stocks. They closed at NT$99.50 on 22 October (TWSE; Business Today, 13 October).
3Q26 revenue rose 27% QoQ to NT$24.2bn, and monthly growth slowed to 3% by September
Third-quarter revenue rose 27% QoQ to NT$24.2bn, and the monthly gains shrank as the quarter went on: July was up 11% MoM, August 5% and September 3%. With the 12-inch fab fully loaded, price carried the increase. Brokerage estimates reported by the Commercial Times put third-quarter NOR prices up 40-60% QoQ, SLC NAND up 70-100% and eMMC up 20-30%, with NOR and SLC NAND shipments down QoQ as capacity shifted to eMMC.
| Month | Revenue | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | NT$7.72bn | +11.0% | +180.5% |
| August 2026 | NT$8.15bn | +5.4% | +218.5% |
| September 2026 | NT$8.37bn | +2.7% | +188.2% |
| 3Q26 | NT$24.24bn | +26.7% QoQ | +195.1% |
- Against 2Q26 revenue of NT$19.1bn, the quarter is up 27%; against 3Q25, up 195%.
- January to September revenue of NT$53.8bn is 60% of the street's FY26E of NT$89.2bn, leaving NT$35.4bn for the fourth quarter.
- September revenue of NT$8.37bn, annualized, is NT$100bn, 13% above the street's FY26E and 36% below its FY27E of NT$156.6bn.
Shipments and price are not split in the monthly reports. The release will show how much of the 27% came from price, and how far NOR and SLC NAND shipments fell as wafers moved to eMMC.
Management said in July that margins have further to rise; the street's full-year number needs a 46% fourth-quarter rise
Macronix does not give numeric guidance. At the July conference, general manager Lu Chih-yuan said third-quarter orders and quotes were enough to keep gross margin high, that NAND and eMMC demand was far above supply, and that shipments would keep rising over the next few quarters. Revenue then rose 27% QoQ.
The street's FY26E revenue of NT$89.2bn (6 analysts) implies NT$35.4bn in the fourth quarter, a 46% QoQ increase, or monthly sales averaging NT$11.8bn against September's NT$8.37bn. TrendForce expects fourth-quarter NAND contract prices up 15-20% and low-density NOR up 10-20%, and the Taiwan brokerage cited by the Commercial Times models 4Q26 revenue of NT$29.2bn, up 21%. A 46% rise would need contract prices to climb faster than in the third quarter, when revenue grew 27% on flat output.
Our published forecasts carry FY26E revenue of NT$89.2bn and FY27E revenue of NT$156.6bn, in line with the street. Revenue for January to September reaches NT$53.8bn, 60% of the FY26E figure with one quarter left, so we expect to revisit our full-year numbers after the release.
What to expect from the release
- Revenue of NT$24.2bn, already reported. The monthly reports settle the top line: up 27% QoQ and 195% YoY.
- Gross margin of about 70%, up from 64.4%. Cost of goods sold was NT$6.8bn in 2Q26 and the fab adds no depreciation until 2028. If costs held flat the margin would be about 72%; the shift of wafers to eMMC, which carries controller and test cost, is why we expect about 70%. Inventory write-down reversals added more than NT$900m to 2Q26 gross profit, close to 5 points of margin, and CFO Yeh Pei-fu said more reversals could follow in the second half.
- Net income of about NT$11bn, or EPS near NT$5.7. Operating expenses were NT$3.35bn in 2Q26 and rise with employee profit-sharing accruals, and the tax rate was 15.9%. The Taiwan brokerage estimate cited by the Commercial Times is EPS of NT$6.1.
- Commentary that fourth-quarter prices rise more slowly. eMMC and SLC NAND reprice monthly, so management's view of October and November prices by product decides the fourth-quarter revenue path. Nanya and the brokerage estimates for Winbond both point to further increases at a slower pace than the third quarter.
- A third-quarter capex figure well above NT$0.5bn. Installation of the NT$37.8bn program begins in the second half of 2026, so the quarter's capex and the equipment delivery dates are the first check on the 2027 capacity schedule.
What investors should watch: three issues for the fourth quarter and 2027
Revenue for the quarter is known. Three issues in the release move the fourth-quarter and 2027 numbers; for each we set out our expectation and the specific thing to check.
- Will fourth-quarter revenue rise 46%, as the street's full-year number implies? Output is flat until the 2027 equipment arrives, so fourth-quarter revenue is a price question. Third-quarter revenue rose 27% with NOR prices up 40-60% and SLC NAND up 70-100% on the brokerage estimates; TrendForce's fourth-quarter ranges are 15-20% for NAND and 10-20% for low-density NOR. We expect fourth-quarter revenue to rise again, closer to the brokerage's NT$29.2bn than the NT$35.4bn the street's full-year number needs. Check management's direction on fourth-quarter prices for high-density NOR, SLC NAND and eMMC separately, whether more NOR and ROM wafers are moving to eMMC, and how fast the 32GB eMMC ramps.
- How much of the price increase reached gross margin, and how much came from inventory reversals? Gross margin rose 23.6 points to 64.4% in 2Q26 while cost of goods sold stayed near NT$6.8bn, and more than NT$900m of that quarter's gross profit was reversal of earlier inventory write-downs. We expect about 70% in 3Q26. Check the gross margin, the change in cost of goods sold, the size of any reversal, the inventory balance against NT$9.8bn at June, and operating expenses, where profit-sharing accruals grow with earnings.
- Is the NT$37.8bn capacity program on schedule? Macronix plans to install equipment from the second half of 2026, add NOR capacity in the first half of 2027 and 3D NAND in the second half, and lift 12-inch output above 30,000 wafers a month, with depreciation starting in 2028. In April management had put the achievable figure near 25,000. Check third-quarter capex against NT$0.5bn in 2Q26, the equipment delivery dates, current 12-inch wafer output, the 192-layer 3D NAND timing for 2027, and any sign that tool deliveries or factory staffing are slipping, which the brokerage names as the main risk.
Valuation and peer comparables
Macronix trades at 5.5x the street's FY26E earnings and 4.0x FY26E EV/EBITDA, level with the memory peer medians of 5.4x and 4.0x (Exhibit 6). Exhibit 6 computes P/E on FMP's consensus EPS, a slightly lower earnings figure than the FY26E net income of NT$38.7bn quoted above. The trailing P/E of 23.7x is not a useful reference: the trailing year includes two loss-making quarters before the price increases took hold.
Micron, Nanya and Winbond are all profitable, with forward P/E between 5.2x for Micron and 5.9x for Winbond, so the peer median carries no depressed-earnings distortion. The whole group trades at 4-6x next year's earnings, so the price of every memory maker already assumes earnings fall back from current levels.
On 2027 the gap is wider. The street's FY27E net income of NT$82.2bn is NT$41.5 a share, so at NT$99.50 the shares trade at 2.4x that estimate, and the price assumes 2027 earnings stay near the 2026 level instead of doubling. Fourth-quarter price commentary that holds the third-quarter pace, and equipment arriving on the 2027 schedule, would support the street's number; slower price gains with output flat until 2027 would support the share price's.
| Company | Mkt cap (US$bn) | P/E (TTM) | P/E (Fwd) | EV/Sales (TTM) | EV/Sales (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | EV/EBITDA (Fwd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Listed | |||||||
| Micron Technology | 1,033.7 | 12.1x | 5.2x | 7.5x | 3.6x | 9.1x | 4.0x |
| Taiwan-Listed | |||||||
| Nanya Technology | 43.9 | 15.2x | 5.4x | 6.8x | 3.0x | 10.5x | 3.7x |
| Winbond† | 21.4 | 17.1x | 5.9x | 4.9x | 2.6x | 11.6x | 4.2x |
| Peer median (all peers) | 15.2x | 5.4x | 6.8x | 3.0x | 10.5x | 4.0x | |
| Macronix | 6.1 | 23.7x | 5.5x | 4.3x | 2.3x | 13.6x | 4.0x |
Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Prices as of 22 Oct 2026. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year (FMP consensus). † Winbond trailing EBIT-based multiples are approximate. Micron's market cap reflects its US$913.67 share price on 22 October 2026 and about 1.13bn shares outstanding.