ASML 2Q26 Preview: Consensus Sits at the Top of the Full-Year Guide

Company snapshot

ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, the machines required to manufacture the most advanced logic and memory chips, including the processors behind AI training and inference. Every leading-edge fab, from TSMC and Samsung to Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron, depends on ASML tools, which gives it an effective monopoly at the leading edge with no direct competitor for EUV. The company is based in Veldhoven in the Netherlands, reports in euros, and is listed in Amsterdam and, as an ADR, on the Nasdaq.

What the company guided, and what the street expects

Metric	2Q26	FY26
Revenue	EUR8.4-9.0bn expected; street EUR8.98bn	EUR36-40bn guided; street EUR40.0bn (+22.5%)
Gross margin	about 51-52% expected	not guided as a single figure
Net income	street EUR2.67bn	street EUR12.72bn
EPS	street EUR6.93	street EUR32.54
Reported to date	Q1 EUR8.77bn (actual)	1H26 about EUR17.75bn (44% of street FY)

Consensus draws on 26 analysts for the full year and 12 for the quarter (FMP, refreshed 14 July 2026). ASML raised the FY26 range to EUR36-40bn from EUR34-39bn at the Q1 print in April; the EUR4bn spread runs from about +10% to +22% growth on FY25 net sales of EUR32.67bn, and the street sits at the top of it.

Recent developments ahead of the print

• ASML raised its 2026 outlook in April on AI demand. At the Q1 print on 15 April the company lifted full-year net sales guidance to EUR36-40bn from EUR34-39bn, reporting Q1 revenue of about EUR8.8bn, gross margin of 53%, and EUV sales of roughly EUR4.1bn. CEO Christophe Fouquet said demand for chips is outpacing supply and that customers are accelerating capacity plans for 2026 and beyond (CNBC, Taipei Times, SemiWiki, 15 April 2026).
• The quarterly bookings number is gone. From Q1 2026 ASML stopped publishing its quarterly net bookings, moving backlog to an essentially annual disclosure; the Q1 release carried no bookings figure and management characterized order intake only as "very strong". For the first time in its modern history ASML reports without the one number the market used to read forward demand from (EBC, TechTimes, July 2026).
• China normalized sharply. China was 19% of net system sales in Q1, down from 36% the prior quarter, and ASML said the bandwidth in its 2026 guidance accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing export-control discussions (CNBC, 15 April 2026).
• An AI-capex scare hit the group in early July. A semiconductor selloff on fears that AI infrastructure spending could slow pulled the sector lower, with Intel among the hardest hit. ASML's demand message, that customer orders exceed available chip supply, is the counterpoint the market is now testing against the tape (Forbes, 8 July 2026).
• High-NA EUV is the next leg. ASML's High-NA systems are still in qualification at customers, and the company expects to nearly double EUV production in 2027, which frames both the second-half ramp and the multi-year growth case (Barchart, SemiWiki).

How the year is tracking: a back-half-loaded 2026

ASML no longer reports monthly, so the quarter is read through consensus and the shape of the year rather than a running revenue print. The street's own quarterly path builds a steep second half.

Period	Revenue (EUR bn)	Basis
1Q26	8.77	actual
2Q26E	8.98	street
3Q26E	10.42	street
4Q26E	11.72	street
1H26	17.75	44% of full-year street
2H26E	22.14	+25% on the first half

To reach the EUR40.0bn the street carries, ASML has to deliver about EUR22bn in the second half, up roughly 25% from the first. Consensus already pencils that in through a 3Q of EUR10.4bn and a 4Q of EUR11.7bn, so the number the market watches is not Q2 itself but whatever management says about second-half shipment cadence and how linear the ramp is.

Guidance and consensus into 2027

Management guided FY26 net sales to EUR36-40bn at the April print, and consensus of EUR40.0bn sits at the top of that range. For 2027 the street carries about EUR50.2bn, a further 25% step, on continued AI demand and the doubling of EUV output the company has flagged. The full-year language on 15 July, and any first framing of 2027, are the lines that move the multi-year picture.

What to expect from the release

• Q2 revenue near the top of the EUR8.4-9.0bn expected range. Consensus sits at EUR8.98bn; the quarter itself is a smaller swing factor than the guidance that comes with it.
• Gross margin around 51-52%, a step down from Q1's 53%. Product and customer mix and the early High-NA ramp weigh on the near-term margin; the direction into 2027 matters more than the exact Q2 figure.
• The FY26 range is the swing item. With consensus already at the EUR40bn top, holding EUR36-40bn unchanged reads as conservative against the street, while a narrowing upward would confirm the optimistic case the shares already carry.
• China and High-NA framing into 2027. Any update on the export-control bandwidth and on High-NA qualification and shipments is the durability signal under the AI-demand headline.

What investors should watch

1. The FY26 revenue range. Does EUR36-40bn hold, narrow upward, or move? Consensus at EUR40.0bn needs the top of the range to be the base case.
2. Second-half shipment cadence. Any comment on how linear the 2H ramp is, given the first half is only 44% of the full-year street number and the back half has to grow about 25%.
3. Gross-margin direction. Where Q2 lands against the roughly 52% expectation, and whether High-NA dilution or pricing sets the tone into 2027.
4. China as a share of system sales. It was 19% in Q1, down from 36%; the level and any export-control update size the risk in the guide.
5. High-NA EUV progress. Qualification and shipment milestones, and confirmation of the plan to nearly double EUV output in 2027.

Valuation: a premium the monopoly has to keep earning

ASML goes into the print at about 53x forward and 60x trailing earnings, at the top of the large-cap equipment group (Applied Materials 47x, Lam Research 41x, KLA 43x, and Tokyo Electron 44x forward). The all-peer median of 43x forward is pulled down by Canon and Nikon, legacy imaging and lithography names whose economics do not compare to EUV, so the cleaner benchmark is the tools makers that actually compete for leading-edge capex. Against those, ASML still trades at the top.

The premium is the EUV monopoly. ASML is the only supplier of the machines the leading edge cannot do without, and consensus has it growing revenue about 22% this year against high-single to mid-teens for the other equipment makers. On forward EV/EBITDA the gap is narrower, 37.7x against a 34.6x median. At these multiples the second-half acceleration is already priced, which is why the full-year range and the tone on 2H cadence matter more than where the Q2 number lands.

Company	Mkt cap (US$bn)	P/E (TTM)	P/E (Fwd)	EV/Sales (TTM)	EV/Sales (Fwd)	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	EV/EBITDA (Fwd)
US-Listed
Applied Materials	456.8	53.8x	46.9x	15.7x	13.7x	41.0x	37.9x
Lam Research	412.6	62.0x	40.7x	19.0x	13.3x	51.5x	40.0x
KLA	290.3	62.5x	42.8x	22.5x	17.0x	48.6x	40.2x
International
Tokyo Electron	198.5	56.4x	44.2x	13.0x	9.7x	38.3x	31.4x
Canon	23.4	12.7x	12.1x	0.9x	0.9x	6.2x	6.4x
Nikon	4.6	n.m.	n.m.	1.2x	1.1x	-14.9x	14.3x
Median (All Peers)		56.4x	42.8x	14.4x	11.5x	41.0x	34.6x
ASML	665.2	59.5x	53.1x	17.5x	14.7x	45.1x	37.7x

Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Prices as of 14 Jul 2026. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year (FMP consensus). P/E shown as n.m. where net margin is below 5% or the multiple exceeds 150x. Price-to-book is omitted: for capital-intensive, IP-driven equipment makers it is not a meaningful valuation measure.